Welcome to the last of three articles that will review the eTopps experiment for the past year. It's been a wild one. With issues down this winter and people complaining on the message boards that eTopps was doomed, we at eTopps Clubhouse thought that it would be a good dose of reality to take a look back over that past year to see exactly how we, as eTopps collectors and speculators alike, ended up where we are today.

Part Three - "Reality Bites..."

The summer had brought the biggest boon that any long-term eTopps investor could hope for. Thousands of new collectors had joined the eTopps community and many of them, smelling quick and easy profits, were buying up secondhand cards. Meanwhile, some long-term investors were counting their blessings and cashing out. The result was that many investors would take 10, 20, or even 50 cards of a certain player. Since they were convinced there was nowhere to go but up with this investment, they bought freely and often. The popularity looked extremely solid, as most of the cards would have 5 to 10 people bidding on them before they finally sold. Thousands of cards were trading hands each week and eBay was making a killing in transaction fees. Amidst all of this activity, the market continued to slide and people started to get nervous.

With football right around the corner, many people looked to new issues and a new sport to breathe new life into the sagging market. In addition, Topps announced that with the beginning of the football season they would unveil their much-anticipated Rewards program. Investors hoped all of these things would re-invigorate interest in eTopps and prop up the secondary market.

2002 football was initially met with wild enthusiasm. There had been no new IPO's issued since the middle of July and buyers flocked to their computers, and began buying up multiple issues as fast as they could. Flip day, as Thursday came to be known, would see hundreds of sellers trying to flip their newly-bought cards for a profit. But something became readily apparent. Prices on new and old issues alike were plummeting! Flip day became Black Thursday for many who viewed eTopps as a can't-miss investment.

A few months earlier it had seemed that there was no end to the potential profits. For the months of September and October only 2002 Tom Brady and Joey Harrington cards bucked the southward trend.

Hoping for a rebound, many eTopps collectors continued to buy multiple cards at IPO, only to be disappointed. Print runs remained healthy, which was good for Topps. Flipping remained a common practice, which was good for eBay. But collectors were growing frustrated with low returns and the continued southward movement of prior issues.

Since most of the buyers were relatively new, they were not familiar with the incredible low point that eTopps was looking at in December of 2001. All they knew was that their cards were losing value and they were losing money. Many cashed out, taking losses and a bitter attitude with them. The message boards erupted. Most every day someone new would announce that they were leaving the eTopps program, eTopps message board, or both. They were not greeted warmly by those who still had faith in the program. Others expressed their displeasure with the antics on the message board by creating their own "eTopps eCrew" message board. When the dust settled, many of the doomsayers mysteriously returned to the program and/or message board. This proved the old adage "don't believe everything you read on a message board."

As 2002 football rolled on it was obvious that something had to be done. eTopps finally responded by lowering print runs. In December they also eliminated a technical loophole that had allowed many buyers to create a virtually unlimited number of accounts. This loophole allowed the few buyers who took massive advantage of it to gobble up large quantities of the "guaranteed" profitable cards at IPO. The market was also helped by a few issues that turned a profit for their owners - Portis, Shockey, Pennington, Holmes, and the NFL MVP Rich Gannon all managed to turn profits for their owners.

By the end of December, thanks to the lowered print runs, many of the new IPOs were re-selling around their IPO, if not slightly above. Topps' Christmas present to those remaining buyers was Doug Flutie, with a print run of 1,000 and cheap $4.00 price tag. The aging veteran flipped for $15.00 plus and rocketed up from there, thanks to an organized effort by a group of eTopps collectors to corner the market on the card.

This practice of "adopting" a certain card became more and more common among investors throughout the year. A number of investors proceeded to hoard large amounts of cards like 2002 Bret Boone, 2002 Frank Catalanotto, 2002 Mark Prior, 2002 Paul Lo Duca, and Joe Montana's Classic. Some were successful and some weren't. The jury is still out on most of these "extreme" adoption cases.

Playoff contenders also saw their players get a boost. Clinton Portis 2002 sold for around $15.00 each and Jeremy Shockey had a quick run to $18.00. This did nothing to help the earlier issues, 62 of which were still selling for less than $6.00. But at least some stability was achieved by the end of the year.

December also saw the introduction of the football Classics. Initially, these cards were met with enthusiasm. The baseball classics were well-respected - although most of the issues had lost value. But, with a maximum print run of 3000 for the football issues, many thought names like Marino and Montana would rival the popularity of issues like Cobb and Ruth. Instead, the football classics saw a return to the short print runs of a year ago and little appreciation for most issues.

At this time, several early eTopps issues mysteriously started skyrocketing on eBay. Several users orchaestrated an artificial surge in the prices of cards like 2001 Deuce McAllister, 2000 Emmitt Smith, 2001 Tony Banks and 2001 Michael Vick. eBay eventually suspended the user and the market corrected itself but it illustrated a shortcoming of the eTopps system. Many eTopps members from the message boards petitioned eTopps to ship portfolio cards to users that are found to be "shilling". No word yet on whether this solution will be implemented.

As the year came to a close, two websites were preparing to unveil advanced tools that enable eTopps members to better track their portfolio performance, conduct trades and much more. CardTarget.com and eToppsTrader.com were poised to forever change how eTopps members collect and invest. 2003 will be an interesting year in eTopps with new features coming to the program, the organization of a convention in Las Vegas and the development of these two much-anticipated websites.

Part 1 - "The Few, The Proud, The eTopps Collectors..."

Part 2 - "From Rags to Riches" or "From Cardboard Cup Holders to Caviar Dreams"