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IPO InsightBoldin, Douglas, Favre, Grossman,
Horn, C. Martin, McAllister, Suggs

By Dave Wiltgen, Guest Writer (e-mail)


Anquan Boldin (3,500 @ $6.50)Anquan Boldin 2003 eTopps

This is as close to a "must buy" as it gets. He's got the hype. It should be a strong card and if it dips below IPO I will buy more. It will be an EASY $10 in-hand card so it makes total sense to buy at IPO. Rating: 10/10.

Curtis Martin (2,000 @ $4.00)Curtis Martin 2003 eTopps

This card just doesn't have anything going for it right now. Buy a 2002 for goodness sakes (which means you should probably order one just in case. There is NOTHING that makes sense about buying this card except for the $4 price tag. If you think you can sell these at Jets games or card shows for $10, knock yourself out. Otherwise stay away. 6/10 due solely to SP potential.

Brett Favre (2,500 @ $6.50)Brett Favre 2003 eTopps

Time to buy 2002 Favre. That's what this says to me. I'd order one at IPO because this card looks good and it'll probably always trade in a range from $3 to $8 so your risk.reward isn't too bad. Additionally, if only 1,400 sell you've got a nice card that somebody might chase. I think enough will sell to cap the value though. Watch the 2002 Favre because that would be a better buy if it gets down to $3 - $4. Even at $5 I buy some 2002's because I think that card will sell OK in-hand if you can get below $6 delivered. Don't overbuy 2002 Favre unless it gets to $1 - $2 though. Rating 8/10.

Deuce McAllister (2,000 @ $6.50)Deuce McAllister 2003 eTopps

This card should do OK. It should sell about 1,200 copies which makes it pretty attractive. Don't buy it if you think it will sell out though... I don't think the market can handle 2,000 of these because who wants non-rookies of Saints players? Just not a big enough fan base right now. 7/10 if you think it doesn't sell out.

Hugh Douglas (2,000 @ $6.50)Hugh Douglas 2003 eTopps

Ugh. Not enough Jaguars fans out there to make this a good buy - and we all know that cards of defensive players that aren't locks for, or already in the Hall of Fame, are pretty much worthless (especially for non-rookie cards). Pray for an SP (or a fantasy eTopps game this year that requires defensive players) if you want to pony up $6.50 for this. I'll buy it hoping for the SP, as will everybody else). Buy it after IPO, even if you have to pay a little more. 10/10 for SP potential but 1/10 for ever making any money on it (based on IPO price with no averaging) if it's not the SP and there's no fantasy game.

Joe Horn (2,000 @ $4.00)Joe Horn 2003 eTopps

Not a bad buy, but it's still "Joe Who"? This Joe has a very small fan base. 6/10.

Rex Grossman (4,000 @ $6.50)Rex Grossman 2003 eTopps

You gotta buy it. Kordell is not the answer and this guy should get a shot this year or next. He's a Bears-style quarterback too and should get to play long enough for you to sell for a profit sometime in the next year or two (methinks sooner rather than later). 10/10.

Terrell Suggs (2,500 @ $6.50)Terrell Suggs 2003 eTopps

Yeah, it's a defensive player. But I like the PR and think it's a good gamble. It should sell pretty well in hand. Most importantly, it is a TRUE rookie card. Therefore I'm going to buy a few and hope for a 1,200 - 1,500 PR. However, it will be available for less than IPO on or soon after flip day as most people will buy this only for the flipping. 5/10.

In closing, Grossman and Boldin are the only ones that you should gamble on at IPO. The rest are anybody's guess and we won't know their fate until after allocation. You can pray that the Ahman Green accumulators are going to do some SP protection but don't count on it. I'd bet they realize that Ahman will not be the SP. I can see protecting Ahman with Rod Smith (many did this) but I think they'll choke on Hugh Douglas, Martin, Suggs et al... Too much money to be lost this week protecting a card that has a PR of almost 1,000.

Bold Prediction: The new SP comes from this group. It will be a temporary SP though as I think there will be too many gamblers and some foolhardy members may try to protect the Green. Thus I still expect over-ordering. Some will be emboldened by the PR from last week that did protect Green so they'll come out this week with guns blazing. However, most will realize it's a foolish attempt and will back off. Look for an SP in the 800 PR-range and it'll probably be Douglas. All bets are OFF if eTopps starts a fantasy game though. That would give Douglas some short-term value.

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