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IPO InsightHampton, R. Johnson, Lane,
Loiaza, Ol. Perez, L. Walker

By Sean Cook (e-mail)


The weirdest things happen sometimes for the best of reasons. Take, for instance, the disappearance of our beloved Jeff West, who writes this column every other week. Last week it seems Jeff had off and gone on one of his wild adventures. Was it driving from Phoenix to Chicago this week? Who knows… but what we do know is that for about a week he was absent from the eTopps scene. This is what I want to talk about, veterans abandoning the eTopps forum. For the purposes of this article I will label myself a veteran. I'm looking to find out where they have all gone.

The scene has been scary for me as of late. I turn back every other day to check the boards and end up reading a bunch of trash. There is so much garbage on the boards it is driving all the legit people mad and away from the boards. How do we keep the boards a sanctuary to talk sports and eTopps in a single breath? There's only so much Steve-O can do with the current setup.

I think it's important to outline one simple change eTopps can make to its message board to restore both their corporate image and order to the boards. It's been suggested before and I'll suggest it again. One message board ID per eTopps account. It's as simple as that. Upgrade the current message board version! It is woefully out of date. Who cares if people's post counts are lost - just do it! With no more multiple ID nonsense participants will censor themselves when they realize how precious the PRIVILEGE of posting on the boards is. Topps needs to realize that inappropriate and offensive content on the eTopps boards damages the company's reputation; not to mention it sends a bad message to prospective eTopps members.

When I look at the boards and see some young punk spouting racist remarks it makes me want to track him down and issue a smackdown. That is what makes the board so unappealing to me. Maybe this is what drives the other guys away from the boards. I think we need to remember the veterans and keep these guys around to share their knowledge with the young guys. The more we let hoodlums run the boards the more it will hurt eTopps.

Well, enough of my lip for the week. Now let's check out our picks for the week. Remember: do not trust my advice but use it as a tool along with other tools to invest smarter. Do your homework and invest wisely.

Esteban Loaiza (2,500 @ $6.50)

This old pitcher was an add-on to the White Sox Staff during spring training. He was not even projected to make the team. Then he goes on and starts the All-Star game for the American League. He is playing for his fourth team in nine years. He has never recorded over 11 wins until this season; he currently has 12 wins. He is on pace for career bests in ERA (currently 2.16) and strikeouts (currently 113). Esteban is on pace for 20 wins and 200 K's this season. Those stats should no doubt carry him over his PB set by eTopps. If you're looking for a card that will achieve PB, this is the card to get. This is his first card and he is well worth it, as he is our vote-in card of the week. I like this card from the start. A salty old dog who finally gets it going in his ninth year. He has had a couple other solid years with Pittsburgh, Toronto and Texas. But he has never put up a "Cy Young" type year like this one. That is right, I said Cy Young - he's definitely a candidate. This is his first eTopps card so it will sell out. This card also has an attractive PR and price. I expect it to post a 15 - 20% gain from now until the season finishes, especially if his numbers continue to waver on the Cy Young side of the house. BUY THIS CARD!

Jason Lane (3,000 @ $4.00)

What can you say about this kid? Like Chris Snelling, an earlier eTopps IPO, he has not appeared in the majors this year. Last year he raced up and played 44 games with the Astros. The problem is that the outfied in Houston is set for the time being, especially with Hidalgo hot of late. Jason is a good kid to watch, although he is a bit lanky right now. Wait until he packs a little more weight on and puts more punch in his bat. Last year he led all minor leaguers with 124 RBI. He was selected as the Texas League MVP and his team's MVP (the third time he has won that award). I like his prospects, his talent for hitting and the price of this card. This card is a rookie eTopps card, even though he got 44 games under his belt last year. Watch this card sell out or come very close to it. The card will drop in value and float in between $3.50 and $4.00 until he makes another appearance in the majors. BUY THIS CARD!

Larry Walker (1,500 @ $6.50)

I don't think I am going to buy into the notion that 1,500 PR is good for every card or any card for that matter. I am not buying it now, nor was I buying it last week or the week before. I don't get it at all. I know people are not buying the quantities they did last year and we are focusing more on SP's and other odd things, rather than collecting. However, we must still produce at least 2,000 of every card -- bottom line! Larry has two prior eTopps cards, 2001 and 2002. His '01 eTopps IPO has only 420 cards and it is selling for $33.01. That, my friend, is a good deal for such a low PR card. Stay away from his '02 card, even though it has a lower PR than most. It is still worthless unless you want to complete a set. So my advice is to watch this card sell out and jump 10 - 25% in price. Then it will drop significantly three to four weeks later. Then swoop in like a hawk and pick them up on eBay. Thanks, but we are all stocked up on crazy here. DON'T BUY THIS CARD!

Mike Hampton (2,000 @ $6.50)

Mike has been around a bit and is making his eTopps debut with the 2003 set. He has finally escaped the hitter's dream and pitcher's nightmare that is Colorado and is now under the tutelage of Bobby Cox and Leo Mazzone. It will take a year before Mike returns to the form he displayed before he wound up in Colorado via free agency (note to kids - unless you're from Colorado -- don't pitch there!). Mike won 60 or so games and lost 30 before entering into the Rockies system. Now he is on the glide path to escape and return to his old form. His PB this year seems reasonable enough for him to reach it. I like the card and I like the Braves but I am not buying it. I don't think this card has sellout power. I believe it will sell about 1,500 - 1,700 cards. I also don't see a potential for this card beyond set collecting. DON'T BUY THIS CARD.

Oliver Perez (2,500 @ $4.00)

Bonds said this kid had good stuff? Said he was the best young pitcher he has faced? Well, Bonds has said some other weird things of late as well. This kid is good, sure. He is a good young pitcher for the Padres. Now get over it. He has posted a 4-5 record and is 3-4 this year with the club. I don't see a lot right now in this kid. It is going to take him a couple years to figure out what is going on. Of course, that might benefit him. However, right now is not the right time to get this card. You're better off waiting until it hits the secondary market and drops in price. It has a reasonable PR and price that may help it sell out and then make a strong run on the secondary market. But I wouldn't count on it. In other words, buy it on the secondary market. DON'T BUY THIS CARD.

Randy Johnson (2,000 @ $9.50)

You should buy Randy Johnson is the argument I want to try and convince you of. This year the $9.50 cards are holding their value better than the other cards - well, the stars anyway. Randy is the best and most intimidating pitcher in baseball. Having just come back from a knee injury I expect him to be back in form soon. This card will do much better than his '02 card, but not as well as his '01 card. Only 1,499 of his '01 IPO are floating around out there and they are being sold for about 40 bucks each. Randy has a good shot of making his PB if he stays healthy. I also like the PR for this card, 2,000 with a $9.50 tag -- very nice! This will help it out tremendously. This card will sell out and hold value! BUY THIS CARD.

TALK BACK!

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