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What I really want to talk about this week is the Event (or "eVent") card. Whatever you want to call it there is a huge flaw in the system. I am not sure if the eTopps Staff actually listens to anything we write on the board or in our articles but I think they might sometimes (I was encouraged to see them add vote-in's each week... something I think I suggested in this column for basketball). Anyways, I hope they are listening now because we are about to crack the egg on this eVent card then I'll talk about our picks this week.
First off, who picks which card or event will become a card? That is what I really want to know. Is it a panel or is it the headman in the shed saying "Hmmmm... you know group, Rafael deserves some recognition since he is the silent hero." Then the only thing you hear is pencils and crickets... because it is a reaction, simply put. I would like to think there is a little more behind the selection of an eVent card (like a vote or some type of office poll). Whatever it is, I think that there needs to be some revisions. First off, the fans need a vote here. I should be able to vote whether I want an eVent card or not. Secondly, we need to make sure we cover the full spectrum. Like when Brett Hull scored his 700th goal; where was the card then? Less people have scored 700 goals than have hit 500 home runs! So there should be a card for every record set or broken? Nah, that would be way too much. Additionally, how does Palmeiro's mark compare with other current baseball milestones? Namely, where is Sosa's 500 HR card? See what I mean here? You have to be consistent across the board in all the sports. When you give to one, give to the others.
Next I'd like to discuss print runs and prices for the eVent cards. Are you wondering why all the eVent cards are worth squat on the secondary market? Well I am not. When you give an unlimited number of cards to be made you open the floodgates. In no way should there ever be an unlimited supply of cards. It does nothing for the card or the reputation of eTopps. It tells people that they want the dollar and care less about the value on the secondary market. Let's cap the eVent cards at between 3,000 and 4,000. That is a good average number from the year's sales. Now as far as the price... why would a person invest so much into a card that will depreciate over time? I say you lower the price to $4 right off the bat. Forget the $8 price tag and lower it so people can actually feel good about investing in something without worrying too much about a big loss... like the 50% loss many eVent cards have experienced.
OK, I think we covered all the bases regarding the eVent cards. We want to vote on cards or at least be consistent with them for all players in all sports. We also want a capped PR and a lower price. With those two little changes you make a card that is worthless into a good quality card that collectors are willing to invest in. Now what do you say we move on and roll with our picks this week in the 7th IPO session for baseball 2003.
Alfonso Soriano (3,500 @ $9.50)
I would say he is, without a doubt, the best all-around second baseman playing the game right now. OK, you might like Kent... but this kid is full of so much energy and is so pure and fluid in everything he does. I just love to watch him swing or run the bases. Now in his third full season, he is ready to be the new star of the Yankees. Last year he was one home run short of joining the exclusive 40/40 club. This year he could easily hit 50 home runs and steal 40 bases. He is hitting .323 this year with an OBP of over .400. Do we really need to sort through all his stats and say how great he is going to be? I don't think we need to at this point. I think you understand his potential to become one of the best second basemen ever. So BUY this card and who cares if he has two previous cards. This card will be worth more than last year's with a PR of 1500 less. Hint - save your money and get one of his 2001 eTopps before the brook collapses and it skyrockets. BUY this card.
Jeremy Bonderman (3,000 @ $6.50)
I am going to admit here and now that I dumped all my votes into Millwood for this spot. However I will be subjective in my analysis, HAHAHA. This Tiger rookie is ranked the #1 prospect in his organization... as is Brandon Phillips, another IPO this week. The only problem I see with Bonderman is the fact that he was brought up too quickly from Single A to the majors. There is no doubt that this kid has the raw potential to be a dominant pitcher in baseball. No one is arguing that. The fact of the matter is the Tigers have no pitching and had to produce with new manager Alan Trammell. So they rushed this youngster who they should have been patient with. Jeremy has had only one year in the minors, composed of two separate short-season A leagues. His combined ERA in the minors was 3.79 and his record was 9 wins and 9 losses. He is extremely fast and throws a fastball in the mid 90's. He however needs better command of his pitches, especially late in the count. This year with the Tigers he is 2-5 and has posted a 5.59 ERA. Now do not hold those loses against him. You can look no further than the poor hitting of the Tigers. However his ERA is to no one's credit but his own. This is a rookie card with rookie potential... so the limits are endless here. This card will sell out and it will continue to do well as long as he is hyped as the next Jack Morris. However, as soon as he is dealt to the minors, most willl lose interest in this card. BUY this card.
John Smoltz (4,000 @ $6.50)
Last year he transitioned from a starting role to closing duties after an injury he sustained to his elbow. He took the ball in the ninth and never looked back, setting the new NL saves mark with 55 last year. You also have to love this card because it is his very first eTopps card. This is going to make it the card to have for John. This year John has converted 15 of 16 save opportunities and is looking to challenge his own record of 55 saves. He averaged over 1 K per inning last year and this year is doing the same. Smoltz is a proven winner and this card will do well. John has been in baseball since his debut as a starter in 1988. There is no telling how much longer this great reliever will play but he stated in his ESPN interview the other day that he is not returning to a starting role. This card will not sell out but it will climb in value 20-30%. BUY this card.
Derek Lowe (2,000 @ $6.50)
The first thing I want to point out to all of you fans and collectors out there is that Derek had a 2002 card and it had a print run of 4,911 cards. Now the seven-day average for those 4,911 cards is a whopping $3.28 apiece. I am not the smartest guy around but I can recognize a bad buy when I see one. I do like the fact that this 2003 card was given a print run of 2000. However I do not think it makes this card attractive enough to invest in. This year Derek is off to a poor start with a 3-3 record and a 6.53 ERA (almost three whole points above his career ERA). Last year he did have a good year, winning over 20 games and finishing third in the Cy Young balloting. But it now appears last year may have been an anomaly. From 1997-1998 he was used as a mid-range reliever. In 1999 he picked up the duties as the closer in Boston. He recorded a healthy 42 saves in 2000. Then he was moved to the starting role where he excelled last year but has run into a wall this year. I do not see a lot of potential for this card. DON'T BUY this card.
Manny Ramirez (2,500 @ $6.50)
Manny is making his third appearance in the eTopps world with his 2003 card. His 2001 card with a print run of 1,074 is by far his most popular. That card is averaging around $21. His 2002 card, with a print run of 4,905, is averaging a dismal $4.00. So the PR of the 2003 card, like that of Lowe's card, is good news. However, like the Lowe card, I do not see the value or potential behind this card, except for set collectors. Last year he put together an impressive year, winning the AL batting title and Silver Slugger awards with a .349 average. This year he is having another productive year, posting a .337 average while slugging 5 homers and 25 RBI. He has 315 home runs and an average of .315 in his career, both great numbers. I just am not drawn to this card. I personally am saving my money for his 2001 card. I do not see a lot of potential for this card, maybe 10-15% above and below IPO. I also don't see this card being a SP. DON'T BUY this card.
Brandon Phillips (4,000 @ $4.00)
Brandon is the #1 ranked prospect (by Baseball Americana) in the Indians organization right now. He came over to the Indians from the Expos in the Colon trade. He is currently the starting second baseman in place of the injured Gutierrez. This year he is off to a slow start, hitting just .248. He is taking a little while to find his groove as a hitter. In the minors he had quite a stick hitting from a Bagwell stance. He has been heralded as the next Jeter or Larkin at SS. The move to second base will take him some time to adjust to but his fielding pct. is .994 and he has only committed one error. I like this kid in the long run. I think he will pan out in a year or two as a great second baseman. Now will he eventually produce like Soriano? I don't think so. But he will be effective. So, with this being his first eTopps card and a rookie card for him, I must recommend to BUY this card.
In closing, nothing is as easy in the eTopps spectrum as charging your credit card more for cards that have some potential, no potential, and a lot of potential. As a collector and investor in eTopps you are a new breed and owe it to yourself to do your homework and invest wisely. Investigate and research before you invest. I hope I was of some help. Get your eTopps Convention tickets before you're left out in the cold!!
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