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IPO InsightBaldelli, Chavez, E. Martinez, Mulder, Phelps, Suzuki

By Jeff West (e-mail)


Edgar Martinez (3,000 @ $6.50)

Edgar has been Mr. Consistency throughout his career. He has been a solid hitter for the last 16 seasons. This will probably be his last year in the major leagues and what better send-off than an eTopps card to honor him! He may not be the most collectible guy in baseball but all you have to do is look at the performance bonus figures for this card and see that it is a lock if he stays somewhat healthy. Some may say he will struggle to get the stolen bases at his age but the last season he failed to steal at least one base was 1993! This is the first eTopps card of a very good player at the end of his career. If you're like me and appreciate first-and-only cards such as this you will buy one. This one is great for you performance bonus chasers too!

Eric Chavez (2,500 @ $6.50)

This 24-year old power hitter is probably one of the best third basemen in the American League. He has been a staple at third base for the Athletics since 1999 when he won the starting job. His performance bonus is very attainable but he will have to step up his RBI production to do it. I wouldn't be too worried as the RBI target is 98 and he's tallied 114 and 109 in 2001 and 2002, respectively. His 2002 card had a print run of 4,334 and this issue is guaranteed to be no higher than 2,500. Since the 2002 card isn't his rookie I'd say that this card is, hands down, the Chavez eTopps card to own. Who really cares about a player's first eTopps card if it isn't his rookie? I'd rather have a card with half the print run and from his 5th year instead of his 4th year - how about you?

Ichiro (5,000 @ $6.50)

This card has me thinking and should have you thinking as well. eTopps is throwing us a bit of a screwball here. Screw you, screw me, screw everybody that has an 2002 Ichiro. There are already close to 20,000 Ichiro eTopps cards in existence. His 2001 has a print run of 10,000 and his 2002 has a print run of 9,477! Now eTopps throws us a 5,000 PR Ichiro that may or may not sell out making it half the PR of each of his other two cards. Now, his 2001 is a rookie card and chances are a lot of them are in-hand. But there is absolutely no reason for anybody to own a 2002 Ichiro when you can have the 2003 with half the print run. I think it will see a small gain but stay below the '01 level while the 2002 takes a skydive without its chute.

Josh Phelps (2,500 @ $4.00)

Phelps is a good young player who is just starting to settle into the majors. From what I have seen so far this year he needs some work. I do think he will blossom into a pretty good hitter in time. He is already a good power hitter. He just needs to work on his average, which will come with time and experience. He is way off-track for his performance bonus so if you are chasing PB's don't look here. Plus, with it being a $4 card and 1 reward point you probably weren't going to look here anyway. This is a good card to pick up for $4 as it only has a 2,500 print run. As Phelps is young and a power hitter to boot, you can't go wrong.

Mark Mulder (2,000 @ $6.50)

All I can say about this card is that it ROCKS! You can't say enough about the upside that this card has. First, let's talk about print run. His 2001 has a PR of 4,335 and his 2002 has a PR of 4,000. His '03 will have 2,000! None of these cards is a rookie card since his first major league season was in 2000. That being said, which one of these cards would you rather own? For me, it no doubt is the '03 issue. It's half the print run of the other two! In regards to the player, Mulder has blossomed into one of the best starting pitchers in the majors and if I need a lefty to start he is my choice! He is on track to hit his PB if he steps up his K's. I will never worry about Mark Mulder making his strikeout requirement as he struck out 159 batters in 2002 and 153 in 2001; how is that for consistency? This card is a no-brainer - buy all you can!

Rocco Baldelli (5,000 @ $6.50)

This 21-year old rookie is on FIRE! He came out looking like he has been in the league for 10 years, beating up on any pitcher he faced. He batted over .400 for the first month of the season, give or take, and showed flashes of brilliance. This is not at all what I was expecting to see from him. He can meet his performance bonus if he can somehow find the power stroke he had in the minors, assuming they give him the chance to steal the 14 bases. There is not a lot of convincing I need to do here. If you have watched any of his games, or even just SportsCenter, you know this kid can play despite the fact he is on a bad team. This is another no-brainer - you should buy this card.

The bottom line:
Edgar - Strong buy (PB and 1st card)
Chavez - Buy (lower PR than his 1st card)
Ichiro - Buy (half the PR of his other cards)
Phelps - Buy (young power hitter, 1st card, and only $4)
Mulder - Buy (half the PR of his previous 2 cards
Rocco - Strong Buy (rookie and on fire!)

My thoughts on the state of eTopps in 2003

As you can tell, I didn't have too many negative things to say this week and that is because the recent print runs in 2003 baseball and the IPO quantities offered by eTopps lately have changed my outlook on eTopps. Previously, everyone was chasing first issue cards and making a big deal over 1st eTopps cards, etc. I really think this mindset is changing and this is the perfect week to make my point. With Ichiro, Mulder, and Chavez being issued with print runs half of the amount of their first and second issue cards it really just kills the market for their previous issues (unless one of the previous issues is a rookie card). I will be selling my 2002 Ichiro, my 2001 Mulder and my 2002 Chavez and purchasing their '03 cards for the simple fact that they are the better cards to own and the better investment by far. You can't ignore the fact that their 2003 cards will have half as many cards available. I don't give a flying leap if it's a player's first eTopps card if it is from his 4th or 5th season and why would I? I would much rather have a card a year newer with half as many available. This is the very reason that many '02 issues, as well as a few '01 issues, are going to see their values dive as their newer issues are unveiled. Hopefully, this year is an anomaly. If eTopps keeps producing cards of the same players print runs will steadily increase year after year or else I shudder to think what will happen.

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