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The season is well underway now and eTopps is moving along with it. As we roll into the third week there are some big deals in baseball right now. Take the Royals for example - you got to give it up for my boys in KC who have strung together 10 wins in 11 chances. They have stacked talent upon talent and not many people realize this. Their farm system has never been noted for being one of the best in the majors but right now it is looking very deep. I applaud the Royals and Twins for their excellent work in the small market arenas. Fighting off the big bad hoards of money wasters like the Bankees. You can argue some other teams are small market too, like the Pirates, etc. I, however, like to think of small market as a team that is only able to sell tickets if the fans know the Yankees are in town.
In the eTopps arena there have been a few surprises as well. Look at the Contreras card. People went all out to grab these up so they could flip them like VW's after release. However, a poor spring and relegation to relief/mid-inning work for Contreras has not helped his card. Then you look down at some of the other cards doing well, like Adam Dunn. Now Dunn is a good player in his own right but let's get real folks! People are smuggling this gem in the rough because it is the next SP? This is a 3rd year card and there's still a long ways to go in the season. The last thing I really want to discuss is the pricing of the cards for 2003 baseball. Where, oh where, do you find the sense to match two $9.50 cards together? I do not see the logic on this one. I know we all care about money and money drives the train... But I know many of the investors out there are simply young collectors who love the game and want to pick up some cards of their favorite star. You are asking them for 19 bones for two cards. Shoot - one of those cards is an unproven commodity. I think putting two $9.50 cards in the same week is wrong. I also think that you need a $4.00 card every week to keep it interesting. Look at the full spectrum - not everyone makes $50 K a year. Well, enough of my bit. Let's see what we have ahead this week. So, remember to keep our troops in your thoughts/prayers and let's roll with the picks:
Alex Rodriguez (5,000 @ $9.50)
Can you say the "greatest" active player in baseball right now, hands down?! As Ric Flair would say, "wooooooooohhhhhhhh". Alex is definitely one of the best players of our generation and will earn himself a spot in the Hall when he retires. I like the fact his IPO was limited to 5,000, though that is still a big number. Last year his 2002 IPO had 6,393 cards allocated. So it is a good sign to see them adjusting their PR's (print runs) with the stars. You can get two cards of Alex if you do not want to get this one. The 2001 IPO sold 2,212 cards and is currently averaging $45.98 on the secondary market. His 2002 card is selling for a whopping $9.01. So, if a new card of Alex is not your cup of tea check out those two cards on the secondary market. Alex is going to hit 40 home runs, average over .300 and drive in over 100 runs. It is a given for this stud. The question is: will his 2003 IPO sell out? I do not see any problems there, but I think it will more likely sell about 3,500 - 3,900 cards. As far as flipping, forget it. This card is strictly for collectors. Investors will get nowhere with this card. I hate to say this but you're better off getting an older eTopps card of Alex than plunking down dough just to "complete your set." Save your money and buy a depreciated one on the secondary market. DON'T BUY this card.
Bartolo Colon (3,500 @ $6.50)
Bartolo is in his 8th season and with his third team. Last year he split the season between Cleveland and Montreal and went 10-4 with each team while striking out 149 hitters. He showed a lot of consistency in putting up the same numbers in both leagues. Bartolo has 86 wins and has had at least 14 wins in every season since 1998. He has 964 total strikeouts and has struck out 200 batters twice in his career. I have never been a big fan of Bartolo, primarily because he looks so out of shape and never did anything for Cleveland. The appealing aspect here is that Bartolo does not have a prior eTopps card. So, if you want to own the one and only Bartolo Colon card, go ahead and buy it. My opinion is that this card will sell 3,100 - 3,500 cards and it will do fairly well, going up about 10 - 15% the first couple weeks. Then it should double to about 13 dollars next year, especially if he does not have another card. So, economically speaking only, I am going to have to recommend this card. BUY THIS CARD.
Greg Maddux (2,500 @ $6.50)
Greg is my Boy. So I hate to come straight out and say this - he is close to the end. I think his skills are still there but he is having a harder time getting into each season. Last year he had a rough beginning before settling down and winning his customary 15+ games. This year he lost three games right off the bat. He had never lost an opening day contest until this year. He already has two eTopps cards, 2001 and 2002. He also has a 2002 eVent card for his 15 straight wins. His 2001 card is the one to have. There were only 1,031 of those cards produced. Compared to 4,008 last year that is awesome. Now his card last year has lost almost 40% of it's IPO price. It is selling for $6.05. So if you want a cheap Maddux, buy that one. If you want a collectors' card, then go buy the 2001 card. If you want to fall in line and get a third eTopps card of a soon-to-be Hall-of-Famer, buy this card. Confusing you, am I? Here is the deal. Maddux is headed to the Hall, no if's, and's or but's about it. The question is: do you own a card of his? If you do not own a Maddux eTopps then pick one of his cards. High end - 2001 (eBay), mid range - 2003 (IPO), or low end - 2002 (eBay). I am not going to tell you not to buy this card and I am not going to recommend this card. I am torn here. I would expect this card to sell out and fluctuate 20% above and below IPO, but mostly below. YOUR CHOICE!
Jason Jennings (4,000 @ $6.50)
Jason was a first-round draft pick, #16, by the Rockies in the 1999 draft. Jason only took three years before he made an impact in the majors, winning the NL Rookie of the Year award last year. He earned 16 wins last year out of the 32 games he started. In those 32 games he racked up 127 strikeouts. Colorado is not known for pitchers with low earned run averages, so do not fault Jason for his 4.52 ERA. He truly has the right stuff and if he were pitching in SF or Seattle, for instance, he would be able to truly take advantage of his surroundings. His potential is unlimited. This year he is off to an average start, 1-1 with a 7.36 ERA. Look for his numbers to settle down in the summer and fall. He should win 13 games and notch 100 K's. I like this card since he did not get one last year. Look for this card to sell out, just like Teixeira. I expect this card to rise and drop for the first couple months of the season, fluctuating 10 - 15% above and below IPO. Towards the end of the summer and this fall, his card will rise as his pitching improves. Long-term potential for this card is very good. Not sure about flipping this card. BUY THIS CARD.
Mark Teixeira (5,000 @ $9.50)
Mark was a first-round pick out of high school but opted to head to college to earn a degree and mature as a hitter. Two ways to look at this - it can hurt your position in the farm system or it can vault you ahead of your peers when you face stiffer competition in college. Either way, he went to GA Tech and was selected with the 5th pick by the Texas Rangers. A 6'3", 220 lb. switch-hitter, this kid has a sweet swing and can hit from both sides of the plate for power. His short stroke gives him a definite advantage. Coming out of college he was the 2000 Baseball Americana Player of the Year. He immediately went into Single A, then Double A ball where he racked up a .319 average, .592 slugging average, 19 round trippers and 69 RBI's. This kid is built for power and is young enough to mature into a great player. He was ranked as the number one MLB prospect by three out of four writers polled by Baseball Americana. Right now Mark is in a bit of a slump, hitting .094 in 32 at-bats. Do not expect those numbers to remain that low. He has excellent potential and will end up reproducing his great college and amateur stats in the pro's. Look for this card to mirror Contreras in the fact that it will sell out and people will try to flip it (but lose money in doing so). This is more a long-term investment. I am very excited about the potential he has and the potential for this card. First, he is a rookie. Second, he has a lot of potential. Third, this is his first eTopps card! BUY THIS CARD!
Roy Oswalt (3,000 @ $6.50)
Roy's a young pitcher in a similar situation to Jennings. He pitches in a hitter's park, Minute Maid Park. Roy, however, is a much better pitcher right now and can use the park to his advantage. Last year he was named Houston's Pitcher of the Organization. He chalked up 19 wins last year and stuck out over 200 batters. Right now, Roy has a 1-1 record and a 2.91 ERA, which also happens to be his career ERA. In his rookie year Roy was 14-4 and recorded 144 strikeouts. His walk-to-strikeout ratio is almost 1 walk per every 4 K's, which is very good for a young pitcher! Roy has recorded 367 strikeouts over his three-year career. Roy has two prior eTopps cards, 2001 and 2002. The 2001 issue had 915 cards printed and is averaging $40.92 for the past seven days. His 2002 IPO had 3,523 cards allocated and is averaging $7.14 for the past 7 days. Don't expect similar returns from this card and do not expect an SP either. This IPO should sell from 2,000 - 2,400 cards and drop to about $6.00 within the first few weeks. It might climb up after a couple years but it has no real long-term potential. DON'T BUY this card.
In closing... my attention is glued to the set with all the NHL hockey games and how awesome the postseason is (thank GOD for DirecTV). Watch the tale of the tape here because it will push up hockey cards or drive them down based on how players and teams fare this this time around. If you have been watching basketball and buying, like I have, you have been getting some good deals. Hockey is soon to follow. Remember, do your homework and invest wisely. If you have not signed up for the eTopps Convention hurry up and do so before you're left in the cold.
So in review:
Teixeira, Jennings - Strong Buy
Colon - Buy
ARod, Oswalt - Don't Buy
Maddux - Your Choice
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