After five weeks of baseball IPOs, some trends are evident for the 2005 set. The median print run for the first 40 cards is 1,300 and declining. Only the 2001 set has a lower median print run among the baseball sets at 915 cards. In contrast, median print runs were 4,000 in 2002, 2,004 in 2003, and 2,279 in 2004. While the lower print runs are problematic for eTopps, they offer some promise for the 2005 set holding more value in the future for collectors than have the last three years’ sets.

In addition, eTopps is progressing further down the list of players selected by voting results earlier this year. Of the 48 cards issued so far (including IPOs this week), eTopps has issued 17 of the 40 veterans voted in by participants, including 13 of the top 14 vote getters (only Nomar Garciaparra remaining). None of the 13 lowest vote getting veterans have been issued at IPO yet. As far as first-time eTopps cards, eTopps has issued 11 of the 20 cards voted in, including the top three and only one of the bottom six. Three additional cards have been added by eTopps that were not part of the voting results. eTopps has also started by issuing teams that led their divisions in 2004. So, eTopps has issued many of the cards most requested by participants and top performing teams, while leaving less popular and less successful teams for future issuance. With a declining number of IPOs issued each week and less popular players and less successful teams remaining to be IPOed, print runs may continue to decline or eTopps may follow the example of the recent basketball and football sets and preempt the set before issuing all cards initially listed.

Billy Wagner (1,200 @ $5.50)

The Phillies’ closer hopes to improve from an injury-prone 2004 season. With his fastball that reaches 100 miles per hour, Wagner had a career high 44 saves in 2003, then fell to 21 saves last year with two extended stays on the disabled list. This is Wagner’s first eTopps card, earned by being voted in by the fans. He received fewer votes than David Wells, which remains the 2005 player card with the fewest cards sold (even if no longer the set’s current short print). However, with the low print runs last week I doubt that Wagner will sell fewer cards than Wells as purchasers react by increasing IPO purchases. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Derek Jeter (2,000 @ $5.00)

Jeter is the first of three players IPOed this week getting their fifth eTopps card. In 2001, 1,041 Jeter cards were issued, so there is only a small chance that Jeter’s 2005 card will fall below that level. The nearest alternative is likely the 2004 Jeter card, with 2,708 cards issued and a recent 7-day average of $4.29. I would expect that the lower 2005 print run would undercut the 2004 card and result in a declining price for the 2004 card, and fall far short of 2,000 cards but more than the 2001 card. Also, perversely, the higher maximum print run for the Jeter card than for the Griffey and Ramirez may lead to fewer Jeter cards ordered as people fear a high print run. I give this card a WEAK BUY recommendation.

Ken Griffey, Jr. (1,200 @ $5.25)

Griffey also earns his fifth eTopps card, and the 2005 is guaranteed to be his shortest printed card. The previous low was the 2003 card, with 1,238 issued and a recent 7-day average of $4.97. With the 2005 card guaranteed to be lower, this card, too, should be able to maintain a $5.00 or higher price in the near term. I give this card a WEAK BUY recommendation.

Manny Ramirez (1,200 @ $5.25)

Another fifth-year eTopps card, Ramirez will pass the 10,000 card level with the 2005 IPO. The 2003 and 2004 versions of Manny Ramirez each sold more than 1,900 cards and are selling for less than $3.00. While this card will have a print run closer to the 2001 IPO, which sold 1,074 cards and is selling for about $16.00, I do not foresee it remaining near the $5.25 IPO price unless it sells many fewer than 1,000 cards. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Mark Prior (2,000 @ $5.00)

In his fourth eTopps IPO, Prior has sold fewer cards with each issue. After debuting with 5,000 cards in 2002, print runs fell to 4,000 in 2003 and 3,750 in 2004. Now, eTopps undermines the print run by almost half. While Prior’s luster has faded somewhat with injuries in 2004 and spring training of this year, Cubs’ fans hope he can resume his path to being one of the game’s top pitchers. While 2,000 cards will be far below Prior’s previous low, I expect that it will place it high among the print runs in 2005. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Baltimore Orioles (1,200 @ $6.75)

At this writing, the Orioles are early season leaders in the American League East, having swept their first series with the Yankees. While they may fall back into third place as in 2004, they will likely improve on their 2004 record of 78 wins and 84 losses. They have gained Sammy Sosa, joining Rafael Palmeiro to become only the third pair of 500-home run hitting teammates in history and the first to play together after having reached the milestone. Surprisingly, though, Brian Roberts has the power early in this season for the O’s, having 6 home runs in only 14 games, already surpassing his career high season of 5! With eTopps setting the season threshold for performance bonus points at 82, I recommend BUY this card at IPO.

Chicago White Sox (1,200 @ $6.75)

The White Sox are also early season front runners in their division, leading the American League Central with 9 wins and 4 losses at this writing. They will likely battle with the Twins for another season to try to win the division. In 2004, they finished with an 83 win, 79 loss record, and would need to win 4 more games to meet the eTopps threshold. I recommend BUY this card at IPO.

Philadelphia Phillies (1,200 @ $6.75)

While the Orioles and White Sox are off to fast starts, the Phillies have had a mediocre start with 7 wins and 7 losses. They will need to improve quickly to be able to contend with the Braves and Marlins in the tough National League East. In 2003, the Phillies won 86 games, but with improved Marlins, Mets, and Nationals teams, the Phillies may have trouble improving on that record to win the 89 games that eTopps requires for the season performance bonus. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

This week’s best buy is the Orioles or White Sox. While the declining print runs in recent weeks have led to increased excitement about this set, I recommend continuing to proceed cautiously with IPO purchases. I’m purchasing only my favorite teams and players, and if they fall in price so far I have been successful in dollar averaging down and selling duplicates. It remains, as always, a dynamic time at eTopps!