Pedro Martinez (2,600 @ $5.00) Roger Clemens (2,600 @ $5.00)

With a combined 526 career wins, neither Pedro nor Roger need a description for anyone reading this column, though it will be somewhat startling to see them facing each other in June in Mets and Astros uniforms, rather than Red Sox and Yankees uniforms. Both are also receiving their fifth regular eTopps cards (not counting their respective eVent cards), and are each priced at $5.00 with a maximum print run of 2,600. But looking at each player’s earlier cards will clearly show which card is a better purchase at IPO.

	Pedro Martinez	Roger Clemens
2001	1,038 @ $18.85	1,462 @ $40.05
2002	6,000 @ $ 1.79	4,568 @ $ 5.78
2003	1,754 @ $ 2.52	3,000 @ $ 4.62
2004	1,726 @ $ 2.82	3,750 @ $ 3.72

In each year except 2002, Clemens has sold more cards that Martinez, but holds a higher price. (While the Clemens 2002 and 2003 card prices are somewhat inflated due to the eTopps autograph opportunity, the 30-day and 365-day averages for these cards remain much higher than the comparable Martinez cards.) Further, the 2003 and 2004 Martinez cards are much lower than the maximum print run for the 2005 Martinez card, making it hard for the 2005 card to be the shortest printed card since 2001. In contrast, for Clemens the card is guaranteed to be the shortest printed Clemens card since 2001 and, based on market caps for the 2002 through 2004 cards, would likely hold IPO price even with a weak sellout. Thus, the choice to me is clear-DO NOT buy Pedro at IPO, but BUY Clemens at IPO.

Vladimir Guerrero (2,600 @ $5.00)

The 2004 American League MVP, Vladimir Guerrero will likely be one of the top players in the major leagues for the next decade. Nonetheless, even after emerging from obscurity in Montreal, he remains underappreciated among collectors, including eTopps. With his fifth eTopps card, his 2002 through 2004 cards have had recent 7-day average of $1.96 to $3.28. The closest comparison for the 2005 IPO may be the 2003 card, which had 2,523 cards issued and a recent 7-day average of $2.67. While the 2004 card sold notably fewer cards (1,913), it has a recent 7-day average of $3.28. This card will be essential for fantasy players, and I believe any serious baseball fan should collect Vladimir Guerrero as he has a potential hall-of-fame career ahead of him. But, unfortunately, I DO NOT recommend buying this card at IPO-instead, accumulate him for a few dollars less after the season ends.

J.J. Hardy (2,600 @ $6.75)

Hardy made his major league debut on opening day, and also gained his first major league hit. He likely would have debuted in 2004 if not for a shoulder injury prior to the season. The Brewers are excited about Hardy’s range at shortstop, and while his power is modest he has the potential to be a good contact hitter. Hardy is another of 2005’s top prospects, but likely not prominent enough in a small market team to leap to the top of eTopps prices. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Scott Kazmir (2,600 @ $6.75)

The Devil Rays left-handed fastballer flew through the minors in only three seasons and has earned a spot in Tampa Bay’s starting rotation. He is considered by many to be one of the top pitching prospects at only 21 years. He pitched eight games in the majors in 2004, winning 2 and losing 3 with a 5.67 ERA and registered a healthy 41 strikeouts in only 33-1/3 innings. However, the print run and price are a bit high, so I expect Kazmir to settle at a price a bit lower than IPO. But if he has a strong first full season, the card could have strong long-term potential. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Cleveland Indians (1,300 @ $6.75)

The Indians were more successful than expected in 2004, falling just short of a .500 record with 80 wins and 82 losses. With strong young players such as Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, and Jody Gerut, the Indians will likely again finish close to the .500 level as they hope to progress back to playoff caliber. eTopps sets their season win threshold at 86 wins, which seems reasonable though not easy. I recommend BUY this card at IPO.

New York Yankees (2,600 @ $6.75)

The Yankees continue to be the team to beat despite their post-season trauma in 2004. They won the AL East division in 2004 with 101 wins, and have added Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, and Jared Wright to their starting rotation. While they will remain popular and cannot ever be counted out of going deep in the postseason, it is hard to see them winning 102 games in 2005 with a stronger Orioles and a still strong Red Sox rivalry in the division. Further, unless the Yankees win 102 games or win the American League, the high print run resulting from the higher cap and large Yankee following will also hurt the longer term value of this card. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

San Francisco Giants (1,300 @ $6.75)

Even if he misses the season, Bonds remains the nationally known face of the Giants, but eTopps cannot include him on the Giants card due to licensing issues. That alone hurts the value of this card. Further, without Bonds they will struggle to win the 89 games required for the season performance bonus by eTopps, eventhough that represents two fewer wins than the Giants had in 2004. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

This week’s best buy is Roger Clemens. While I did not recommend buying Scott Kazmir at IPO, those who enjoy taking risks on rookies will also find his card attractive at IPO.