Week 2 of baseball sees the debut of 5 new players that have not previously had eTopps’ cards and the three National League playoff teams besides the National League champion Cardinals (who were debuted last week).

Adrian Gonzalez (3,900 @ $6.00)

The 24-year-old first baseman poses a problem for the Texas Rangers since Mark Teixeira appears safe at the position. Gonzalez batted over .300 in AAA and may have the advantage on defense, but does not have Teixeira’s power (Gonzalez had 12 home runs in 2004 in AAA). Unless Gonzalez can play designated hitter or Teixeira moves to the outfield, it’s hard to see Gonzalez gaining regular playing time, and thus will likely fall far short of the performance bonus levels (such as 17 home runs) set by eTopps. With David Wright and B.J. Upton falling far short of the 3,900 maximum print run during the first week IPOs, I would expect Gonzalez also to fall to about 2,000 cards sold even with the lower price. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

David Wells (2,600 @ $5.00)

Wells joins his ninth major league team in his 18th major league season. The Red Sox hope that he can soften the blow of losing Pedro Martinez and retain a strong competitive edge against his former Yankee teammates. Wells has a 212 win, 136 loss career to date, and had 12 wins and 8 losses for the Padres in 2004. Having lost more than 10 games only once, and having won 20 games in 2000, Wells likely will bolster the Red Sox even as he pitches into his 40s. If he can remain in good health, his performance bonus levels seem reasonable, and would have been met in 2004. While this veteran deserves an eTopps card, it is unlikely to be a strong fan favorite among collectors as Wells is at the end of a solid, but far from hall of fame, career. Thus, I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Johan Santana (2,600 @ $6.00)

Paraphrasing the old cliché, better a year late than never. Santana had a career year in 2004, winning 20 games and the Cy Young award as he burst into national prominence after having already been a Minnesota favorite for several years. Santana’s absence from the 2004 eTopps set highlighted many collectors’ disappointment that eTopps cannot maximize the potential of its internet-based distribution by incorporating prominent players having phenomenal seasons. Nonetheless, eTopps attempts to redeem itself in 2005 with the debut of Santana. While he may not reach his 2004 levels, at the age of 26, with only one season as a starter, and with a devastating changeup and solid fastball, he will likely have an all-star caliber career over the next decade. Even though he would need to nearly match his 2004 season to gain the performance bonus threshold, I recommend BUY this card at IPO.

Johnny Damon (2,600 @ $5.00)

After being a key piece of the Red Sox 2004 championship run, Johnny Damon is another card that appears to be a year late. Damon’s appearance, with long hair and beard, makes him one of the most distinctive players, but he would likely earn ESPN highlights even without the hair due to some of his wall-slamming, diving, and leaping catches. Even President Bush singled Damon out when the Red Sox visited the White House, joking that the World Series "took a lot of guts, and a lot of hair." Damon’s 2004 season included a career best 20 home runs and a .304 batting average. He could slacken slightly on those stats in 2005 and make the eTopps performance bonus levels, but would need to increase his stolen bases to levels achieved in earlier years to be able to earn the bonus. At a $5.00 price, I would have happily recommended this card if the print run were limited to 1,300. It is unlikely to sell out at 2,600, but Damon’s and the Red Sox’s popularity are likely to push it higher than 1,300. Thus, this card earns a WEAK BUY recommendation at IPO.

Justin Morneau (3,900 @ $6.75)

Justin Morneau almost wished that 2004 was not his rookie season because it cost him the chance to be on the Canadian Olympic baseball team. Nonetheless, the Twins’ playoff contention by midyear 2004 meant that they needed to keep Morneau on the major league roster rather than allowing him to play for Team Canada. Morneau hit 19 home runs in a mere 280 at bats in 2004, and could easily become the first Twin since 1987 to hit 30 home runs in a season. Morneau hopes to improve his .276 batting average from 2004 as he gets more at bats against major league pitching. While I believe Morneau is a promising addition to the Twins team, I find the $6.75 IPO price and 3,900 print run cap to both be high. I would recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO, but buy it once it falls to $5.00 on the secondary market.

Atlanta Braves (1,300 @ $6.50)

The Braves won a thirteenth consecutive division title in 2004, winning 96 games. In 2005, they have added Tim Hudson from Oakland and moved John Smoltz back as a starting pitcher. They will need to win 96 games again in 2005 to gain a performance bonus, which will be difficult in one of the toughest divisions. Even with the idiosyncratic $0.25 discount from the other team cards IPOed this week, I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Houston Astros (1,300 @ $6.75)

Houston won 92 games in 2004 to capture the National League wild card in the playoffs, but will have a hard time repeating in 2005. Clemens, Bagwell, and Biggio are a year older, and the Astros lost Carlos Beltran as a free agent to the Mets. One positive for the Astros in 2005 is closer Brad Lidge. The Astros would have to win 94 games in 2005 to gain the eTopps performance bonus, but improving on 2004 is unlikely. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Los Angeles Dodgers (1,300 @ $6.75)

The Dodgers won the National League West in 2004, edging past the Giants with 93 wins. The loss of Adrian Beltre will set the Dodgers back, though they added Derek Lowe and hope that Eric Gagne’s spring training knee injury will not hinder him. They are predicted to finish in the middle of the division in 2005, and will be challenged to get the 91 wins that eTopps requires for a performance bonus. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

This week’s best buy is Johan Santana, though I wish even more that I could have bought him at IPO in July 2004.