This appears to be the final week of IPOs for the 2004 basketball set, with eTopps terminating the set after issuing 77 cards. While this is almost identical to the size of the successful 2003 basketball set, it seems small when considering that 30 cards are of teams, leaving just 45 for players. Many players originally anticipated to be included in the 2004 set have been left out-as similar story as occurred with the 2004 baseball and football sets. By almost all measures, the 2004 set is disappointing compared to the 2003 basketball set. While both years’ sets included almost all of the top draft picks, the rookies in the 2003 set are exceptional, led by Lebron James and Carmello Anthony. While Emeka Okafor, Dwight Howard, or Luol Deng may develop into All-Stars, they fall short of the 2003 rookies. The 2003 set also likely will end with a lower median print run, with the median print run for 2003 being about 800 cards while the median print run prior to this week’s IPOs being about 900 cards for the 2004 set. (It will fall to about 850 cards after this week’s IPOs.) The median 7-day average price for the 2003 set is about $5.50 per card, while the 2004 set is at about $5.00 per card and likely to fall as team cards exhaust their performance bonus potential during the course of the season. The 2003 set currently is about 40 percent above IPO price, while the 2004 set hovers just 3 percent above IPO price and likely to fall below the IPO price as the team cards mature. While the 2004 set has some highlights and modest print runs, the 2003 set remains one of the bright stars among eTopps sets while 2004 falls among the average. Let’s look forward to the New Year and new opportunities for eTopps, hoping that some of the successes of 2001 and 2003 can be replicated in 2005!

Rashard Lewis (800 @ $4.25)

The SuperSonics have been one of the top teams in the NBA this season, leading the Northwest division, and Rashard Lewis’s play at forward has been a key part of the SuperSonics’ success. Lewis is aiming for a career high in scoring average, with a current average of more than 21 points per game-about 50 percent higher than his career average of less than 15 points per game. Lewis also ranks 6th in the NBA in 3-point shots made. This is Lewis’s second eTopps card, with his 2003 card selling 923 cards and having a recent 7-day average of $3.35. This card will by definition sell fewer cards than the 2003 version, with a maximum print run of 800, and more likely it will sell between 600 and 700 cards. If the print run falls closer to 600, then I would expect the card to retain the $4.50 price and a market cap similar to the 2003 card’s cap. I recommend this as a WEAK BUY at IPO.

Stephon Marbury (800 @ $4.50)

The Knicks’ guard ranks second only to Steve Nash in assists so far this season and he maintains an average of about 20 points per game. In his ninth NBA season, Marbury is getting his third eTopps card. While the maximum print run for the 2004 card is set at 800 cards, that print run would far exceed the 418 cards sold in 2001 and 509 cards sold in 2003. Because of the low 2001 and 2003 print runs, both cards have performed well, with 7-day average prices of about $42 and $11, respectively. The 2004 card is likely to sell more than either the 2001 or 2003 card, and have a lower price. But with fewer than 1,000 cards on the market now and likely to be fewer than 1,600 cards over the three years, Marbury will become one of the few players in any sport to have three eTopps card averaging print runs of less than 600. If so, this card may be able to retain its IPO price at $4.50. I recommend this as a WEAK BUY at IPO.

Philadelphia 76ers Team Card (700 @ $6.50)

Allen Iverson has continued playing at All-Star caliber, but the 76ers have had a disappointing start to the season. To date, they have fewer wins (13) than losses (14), and would be on pace to win only 39 games. eTopps graciously set the 76ers performance bonus threshold exactly at that level, requiring only 39 wins and a sub-0.500 win/loss record for a performance bonus point. The 76ers look to be on the bubble for the playoffs as well as eTopps performance points in 2005. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Portland Trail Blazers Team Card (700 @ $6.50)

The Trail Blazers are on pace to replicate their 41 win, 41 loss record last season as they currently have 13 wins and 13 losses. Zach Randolph has led the team with an average slightly more than 20 points per game. The Trail Blazers will need to finish with 42 wins to get a season performance bonus, and 9 wins in January for a monthly bonus. Both are achievable, but will require the Trail Blazers to start playing better ball. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Washington Wizards Team Card (700 @ $6.50)

Wizards’ fans finally have a team worth cheering for as the Wizards seek their first post-season playoff appearance since 1997. The addition of Antawn Jamison to a lineup with Gilbert Arenas and Larry Hughes has made the Wizards one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA. But the early season success may have led to some inflated performance bonus thresholds. eTopps would require the Wizards to win 44 games over the season to achieve a performance bonus. While at the beginning of the season it would be hard to believe that the Wizards would have to win more games than the 76ers or Trail Blazers to get a performance bonus, they are on pace to win about 47 games. Let’s hope the Wizards have not just played the first third of the season above their heads and can continue at this level. I recommend this card as a WEAK BUY.

In closing, I think this week’s best buy is the Washington Wizards. But remember that these are just my thoughts, influenced by my biases and research. Buy only the cards you want for your collection or anticipate could achieve an investment gain and you will more likely be pleased with your purchases.