Dirk Nowitzki (1,000 @ $4.25)

This will be Dirk’s 4th eTopps card and is apparently being released this week thanks to his 53 point performance. The market caps of his previous cards are about $10k, $5k and $3k. His 2003 card IPO’d at a print run of 1,000 and trades around the $3 mark. You should expect the same from his 2004 unless it sells below the maximum. There has yet to be a Nowitzki card that has sold for under 1,000, so if one did it would be an attractive card. Even then gambling on short prints is a good way to spend and lose a lot of money. I would consider this card a risky buy at IPO.

Kevin Garnett (1,000 @ $4.25)

This will be Garnett’s 4th eTopps card. The market caps of his previous cards are about $20k, $8k, and $10k. Two of his previous cards have print runs well below 1,000. His 2001 version has only 855 cards and his 2003 is his short print at 664. If Garnett’s 2002 card can stay above $5 at a print run of 1707, then I’d assume that his 2004 version should have no trouble staying above $4. This card will definitely sell out and should appreciate in value. I would consider this card a good buy at IPO.

Charlotte Bobcats (950 @ $6.50)

Target: 4 wins in December, 20 wins in regular season

Charlotte is currently 2nd to last in their division with a record of 4-12. 1st year expansion teams usually take some time to become competitive and the Bobcats are no different. They have yet to win a game on the road this season but have been able to go .500 in their games at home. At the moment, Charlotte is 1-2 and have 10 games left to play in December. Then again, apparently the Bobcats can’t win a road game so it’s more like they have 5 games left in December. Nevertheless, this is basically a rookie team card and might actually have some collectible value after the season ends. I would consider this card a risky buy at IPO.

Los Angeles Lakers (850 @ $6.50)

Target: 7 wins in December, 45 wins in regular season

The Lakers are also 2nd to last in their division but have a much more respectable record, 10-8. It’s strange to look at a Lakers card and not see Shaq on the front of it, but at least on this one Vlade looks like he wants to give you a great big hug. L.A. is currently 1-2 with 9 games left in December. This would force them to go 6-3 for the rest of the month. I don’t like a win every 2 out of 3 games target for a team that is barely above .500. I would consider this card a risky buy at IPO.

Memphis Grizzlies (850 @ $6.50)

Target: 7 wins in December, 35 wins in regular season

You’ve probably already guessed it, but I’ll tell you anyways... Memphis is 2nd to last in their division with a record of 8-12. The Grizzlies are currently 3-2 with 11 games left in December, forcing them to finish 4-7 in order to meet their bonus. This seems like an achievable goal with their 40% winning percentage so far. Additionally the season bonus looks particularly attractive when compared to the Lakers card. I would consider this card a safe buy at IPO.

San Antonio Spurs (850 @ $6.50)

Target: 12 wins in December, 60 wins in regular season

San Antonio leads their division and has a strong record of 16-5. They are currently 4-2 with 10 games left in December. This leaves them very little room for error as they can only lose 2 games and still make their bonus. I think I’d rather bet on the Bobcats to win 3 than the Spurs to win 8. They have a 75% winning percentage; can they bump it up to 80%? I would consider this card a risky buy at IPO.