As eTopps’ 2004 basketball series continues into its seventh week, average player and team card print runs have shown a nearly steady decline most weeks. For the player cards, the average print run peaked in week 2 at 1,717 cards, slightly higher than the average of 1,634 in week 1. The decline then started with an average of 1,360 in week 3, 1,036 in week 4, 1,208 in week 5 (helped by both a Dwayne Wade sellout and only 3 player cards issued), and a low of 713 in week 6. The team cards have shown a similar progression, with the first three weeks having sellouts at 1,000 print runs, followed by averages in weeks 4 through 6 of 803, 811, and 713 respectively.

Perhaps some of this trend was designed by eTopps since it issued the top five draft picks consecutively in weeks one through five, the new Shaquille O’Neal Miami Heat uniform card in week 1, and Lebron James’ second-year card in week 2. But as the selection of rookies and veterans weakens with each week, interest in buying these cards at IPO also fades. As “testlaunchvet” and others have pointed out on the eTopps message boards, eTopps also hurt itself in team card sales by not issuing monthly bonus levels when the cards were sold. Perhaps the fact that December bonus levels are now available for this week’s team cards will lead to a small resurgence in sales for team cards, but the consistent team card sellouts seen in the first three weeks are unlikely to return across the board.

The declining print runs each week can be seen, like so much else in eTopps, as both good news and bad news. Set collectors and short print hunters who buy at IPO must appreciate the better investment potential from lower print runs. The average print run for the 2004 basketball series (1,004) now almost exactly matches that for the 2003 basketball set (1,001), which has been one of the most successful post-2001 eTopps’ sets so far. But eTopps prematurely terminated the 2004 baseball and football sets before issuing all of the anticipated cards, perhaps due to declining sales and interest. Hopefully the 2004 basketball set can complete its run before a similar pre-emptive termination of the set occurs, particularly with uncertainty regarding how eTopps will fill the void between basketball and baseball seasons other than with the final football classics series.

Bonzi Wells (1,000 @ $4.50)

The Memphis Grizzlies’ guard, Bonzi Wells is in his sixth NBA season and earns his first eTopps’ card. In the first 14 games of this season, Wells is largely matching his career averages at about 13 points per game. After a full college career at Ball State, he played from 1998 to 2003 for the Trailblazers before being traded to Memphis. This card is unlikely to sell out, and with a sufficiently low print run could hold or exceed the $4.50 IPO price if 700 or fewer are sold. With 4 of 6 cards last week doing so, I think the chances are good for several cards this week. I recommend this as a WEAK BUY at IPO.

Chris Duhon (1,000 @ $4.50)

After contributing to Duke’s winning the ACC championship three times and the NCAA championship once during his four years playing for the Blue Devils, Duhon was the 38th pick in the 2004 NBA draft. Duhon has come off the bench and had spot starts at guard so far for the Bulls, playing an average of over 20 minutes per game. He has had modest scoring during these minutes, less than 4 points per game on average, but leads rookies in assists per game early in the season. Duke fans who collect eTopps will likely remain loyal and pick up a few of this rookie’s card, but otherwise I do not anticipate it having a strong following. I recommend this as a WEAK BUY at IPO.

David Harrison (1,000 @ $5.00)

The 29th and final first round pick in the 2004 NBA draft, the 7-foot center for the Pacers has had his rookie season interrupted by the Pacers’ brawl. While not one of the initial group of players suspended for fighting the Pistons and fans, Harrison’s name has been implicated as contributing to the brawl. If he can avoid the mud from this fight, he will get more playing time with Jermaine O’Neal serving his suspension and Harrison has shown potential higher than his modest draft ranking. But Harrison has had foul trouble, fouling out in a game last week after only 29 minutes, so will need to adjust to the expanded playing time and role quickly if the Pacers hope to recover as a team from the early season disaster. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Samuel Dalembert (1,000 @ $4.50)

Dalembert is in his third season with the Philadelphia 76ers, earning his first eTopps card. The center out of Seton Hall has come off the bench so far for the 76ers to backup Marc Jackson. He had a strong 2003-2004 season, but so far this season has not played as many minutes per game, resulting in a lower scoring and rebounding average. He remains a valuable sixth-player, and with more playing time may yet have a breakthrough to become a regular starter for the 76ers or elsewhere in the next few seasons. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Tracy McGrady (1,000 @ $4.50)

McGrady receives his fourth eTopps card, but the first as a Houston Rocket. McGrady’s 2001 and 2003 eTopps cards have sub-1000 print runs (758 and 812, respectively) and have both performed well. Most notably, the 2003 card has a recent 7-day average just above $7.00. In comparison, the 2002 card with more than 2,000 issued hovers near $2.00 in recent prices. I would expect the 2004 card to fall between these, but with two other sub-1000 print run cards of McGrady already on the market I doubt that the new uniform alone will make it sufficiently unique to rise above IPO price unless the 2004 print run falls far below 700. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Yao Ming (1,000 @ $4.25)

The 7-foot, 6-inch sensation from China continues to impress in his third NBA season, starting the year off with a career-high 18 points per game average. Teamed with Tracy McGrady, the Rockets hoped for better than the team’s 6 win, 9 loss start, but consistent excellence has become the expectation and norm for Yao. This will be Yao’s third eTopps card and the shortest print of the three. The 2002 rookie card, with 6,000 issued, and the 2003 card, with 1,105 issued, have recent 7-day averages of just less than $7.00. With Yao’s continued growing stardom, the 1,000 print run, and the $4.25 price tag, I think this card can remain at or above the IPO price while the 2003 card may slip somewhat. I recommend this card as a WEAK BUY.

Indiana Pacers Team Card (1,000 @ $6.50)

Well, at least eTopps could find a silver lining by marketing this one with the phrase “reduced win targets now apply.” With 3 of its starting players suspended for significant portions or all of the season, the Pacers would need to win just 6 games in December and 44 in the season (just 34 more after 14 games) to receive performance bonuses. Unfortunately, the recent brawls have given the Pacers more national prominence, and combined with the lowered targets this card will likely sell well. You might make a buck or two from points or the team’s notoriety, but this will remain a sad, sad season for the Pacers. Many will elect to buy this card, but I prefer to forget the Pacers’ season and suggest DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Orlando Magic Team Card (1,000 @ $6.50)

The Magic need to win 8 games in December and 42 games in the season (34 more after 12 games) to receive performance bonuses. With Steve Francis off to a strong start, and Grant Hill hopefully able to play on a regular basis, the Magic could reach these levels. I recommend this as a WEAK BUY at IPO.

Sacramento Kings Team Card (1,000 @ $6.50)

The Kings need to win 8 games in December and 52 games in the season (44 more after 13 games) to receive performance bonuses. The season total seems high, so the reward potential will depend on reasonable monthly standards set by eTopps and a deep performance in the playoffs by the Kings. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

In summary, my recommended best buy this week are, at best, faint-hearted recommendations of either Yao Ming or Bonzi Wells. More likely, Wells, McGrady, or Dalembert will sell fewer cards than expected and in retrospect appear to be good buys, but I think it is too risky to gamble on a short print as the buyer more than likely ends up with a mediocre card that is not valued. Instead, I suggest that it is more enjoyable to buy who you like and think has good potential on their merit and price/print run combinations. But, as always, these are just my recommendations for you to use in comparison to your own insights and purchasing strategies.

Finally, a correction from two weeks ago. I mistakenly said that the Timberwolves lost in the first round of the playoffs to the Lakers. Instead, the Timberwolves lost in the conference finals to the Lakers, having beaten the Nuggets in the first round and the Spurs in the conference semifinals. Thanks to the reader who called this error to my attention. While I regret the mistake, I am pleased that someone read the IPO Insight closely enough to notice it and call it to my attention. Feel free to contact me if you have suggestions, comments, or corrections!