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IPO Insight3rd time a charm for Amare Stoudemire this week?

By Adam Moeller (e-mail)

November 23, 2004


Amare Stoudemire (1,000 @ $4.00)Amare Stoudemire 2004 eTopps

This is Amare's 3rd eTopps card. His previous 2 are pretty valuable because the first is his rookie card and the second is a short print that is limited to only 554. His rookie is valued at $35k and his short print is worth about $17k. This leaves room for some appreciation of a 3rd year card that IPOs at only $4k. Amare is off to a hot start and I see no reason why this card would trade below IPO on the secondary market. I would consider this card a good buy at IPO.

Carlos Arroyo (1,000 @ $4.00)Carlos Arroyo 2004 eTopps

This will be the 2nd eTopps card for Carlos. His previous card was in 2003 and is his rookie. Additionally it has a print run of 1,000 and has struggled to stay at or above $4k since it IPO'd. Thus this card will only have value if it comes in with a short print. Even then I don't see it being worth all that much. There's no reason to buy a second year card at IPO when you can get a rookie at the exact same price. I would consider this card a bad buy at IPO.

Corey Maggette (1,000 @ $5.00)Corey Maggette 2004 eTopps

This will be Maggette's 1st eTopps card. So far this year he's averaging 18.5 points and 5 rebounds per game. While the $5 price tag might seem a bit steep, the 1,000 cap on the print run is a nice incentive for this card. Unfortunately there aren't many cards that we can compare this one to. It's rare to find a solid veteran with a 1st year card with a 1,000 maximum print run. For that reason I can see some value in this card and would expect it to hang around IPO on the secondary market. I would consider this card a safe buy at IPO.

Jamal Crawford (1,000 @ $5.00)Jamal Crawford 2004 eTopps

This will be Crawford's 1st eTopps card. So far this year he's averaging 18 points and 4 assists per game. This card pretty much has all of the same qualities as Maggette's card. It's expensive but is a first and only card of a solid player. I would once again expect a sell out and a price not too far off from IPO. I would consider this card a safe buy at IPO.

Marquis Daniels (1,000 @ $5.00)Marquis Daniels 2004 eTopps

This is Marquis' first eTopps card and 2nd year in the NBA. He was acquired as a free agent in 2003 and is seeing more playing time this year. His numbers aren't as impressive as Maggette's and Crawford's but he still has many years to develop. He is surrounded by talent in Dallas whether or not that is a good or bad thing. This card would have made a nice rookie in the 2003 set but instead it proves an expensive second year option of a developing player. I would consider this card a risky buy at IPO.

Quentin Richardson (1,000 @ $4.25)Quentin Richardson 2004 eTopps

This will be Richardson's 2nd eTopps card with his first coming in 2003. His previous issue is a short print with only 605 cards in circulation. Even with this characteristic it is only valued at around $5.5k. So is an additional card a year later in a new uniform needed? Not at this price and print run. I would expect this card to outsell 605 and then fall below IPO. I would consider this card a really bad buy at IPO.

Boston Celtics Team Card (1,000 @ $6.50)Boston Celtics 2004 eTopps

Target: 36 wins in regular season

It's difficult to purchase a team card without knowing the monthly bonuses. That was the best part of football team cards, you knew pretty much everything before you bought the card. Unfortunately for basketball you only get the season target now and the monthly targets will follow. Because of that I would expect eTopps to adjust the targets so that most cards pay out between 2-3 points. So if you're playing the point game I would pass at IPO and pick these up cheap during a month that they've missed their target. I would consider this card a risky buy at IPO.

Seattle SuperSonics Team Card (1,000 @ $6.50)Seattle SuperSonics 2004 eTopps

Target: 8 wins in December, 47 wins in regular season

Seattle is currently tearing up the NBA. It's unfortunate that this card didn't IPO earlier because they would have surely met their November bonus. The SuperSonics will play 12 games in December, so in order to meet their bonus they'll have to win 2 out of every 3. They've also got a great head start at meeting their season bonus. I would consider this card a good buy at IPO.

Utah Jazz Team Card (1,000 @ $6.50)Utah Jazz 2004 eTopps

Target: 9 wins in December, 48 wins in regular season

Utah is currently battling to stay above .500. They'll play 15 games in December and will need to win 3 out of every 5 of them in order to meet their target. Their season bonus also seems a bit high given their current record. I would consider this card a risky buy at IPO.

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