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IPO InsightLower print runs spell higher gains for rookies this week

By Adam Moeller (e-mail)

November 10, 2004


Below is just my opinion and analysis of this week's IPO. They are offered only as opinion and to encourage discussion. Looking forward to your own opinions and comments.

J.R. Smith (1,000 @ $5.00)J.R. Smith 2004 eTopps

Smith was the 18th overall pick of the draft and entered the NBA straight out of high school. He averaged 24 points per game his Senior year and earned MVP honors at both the EA Sports Roundball Classic and the McDonald's All-American game. While he is still young and will obviously be a player to develop, at times he has been compared to Vince Carter and Paul Pierce. Additionally, Smith was the second-leading rookie scorer during the preseason. It sounds like this kid has nothing but upside. At his age he's got plenty of time to develop his game and learn how to play at the professional level. With a maximum print run of 1,000 I would consider this card a good buy at IPO.

Kenyon Martin (1,000 @ $4.75)Kenyon Martin 2004 eTopps

This will be Kenyon's 4th eTopps card and its only redeeming quality will be that he is in a Nuggets uniform. He already has two cards with shorter prints from 2001 and 2003, and obviously those are his most valuable. Unfortunately their market cap is only valued at around $6,000 each. I would expect his 2004 to sell out and be valued more closely to his 2002 issue at or below the $4,000 level. Unless you really need a card of Kenyon in his new jersey I would suggest you pass on this one. I would consider this card a really bad buy at IPO.

Lamar Odom (1,000 @ $4.75)Lamar Odom 2004 eTopps

This will be Lamar's 2nd eTopps card with his first being issued in the 2001 set. It was a relatively short print and is currently valued at $20 or $10,000 of market cap. The reason for this second card is that Lamar is now sporting a Lakers jersey. This card may be a cheap alternative for those not wanting to shell out $20 for the previous version. However, there are no veteran cards from the 2003 set with print runs of 1,000 that are valued above $4,000. That pretty much shows that this card doesn't have much upside. What it does have is room to fall and because of that I would also consider this card a bad buy at IPO.

Luol Deng (1,000 @ $5.00)Luol Deng 2004 eTopps

Deng was the 7th overall pick in the NBA Draft. He played only one year at Duke and decided that his game was good enough to take to the next level. So far he has done everything to back that up, averaging 20 points in his first 3 games. He currently is the best performing rookie of the class. While Okafor and Howard were the Top 2 picks, their 3,000 print runs appear extremely large when compared to Luol's performance and his 1,000 maximum. This one seems like a no-brainer and we'll likely see immediate profits on the secondary market. I would consider this card a definite buy at IPO.

Rafael Araujo (1,000 @ $5.00)Rafael Araujo 2004 eTopps

Rafael was the 8th overall pick in the NBA Draft. He played two years of college ball at BYU and also had two years of JUCO ball before that. One of his biggest problems is his speed, which will definitely show at the NBA level. Additionally, he used his large 6-11 280 lb. frame to dominate opponents at the college level. This won't be as easy a task in the NBA where his size is comparable to other players. Finally, Rafael is currently 24 years old so there is some question as to how much development he can actually achieve. He won't see much playing time this year and because of that you should probably hold off on this card. I would consider this card a bad buy at IPO.

Robert Swift (1,000 @ $5.00)Robert Swift 2004 eTopps

Swift was the 12th pick in the draft and enters the NBA straight out of high school. He stands at 7'1" but only weighs in around 245 lbs. Despite his height he's going to have to add some bulk or he will be manhandled at the professional level. Nevertheless, he obviously has potential with his physical attributes and having been drafted out of high school. It's going to take some time for this guy to adjust his size and his game so you should probably wait this one out. I would consider this card a risky buy at IPO.

Shaun Livingston (2,000 @ $4.25)Shaun Livingston 2004 eTopps

Livingston was the 4th pick in the draft and could turn out to be the best in the draft. He has been praised for his passing ability and his 6-7 frame gives him the ability to be dominate at his position. There's really not much holding this kid back and he has the potential to become a star. The 2,000 maximum print run is a nice step down from the 3,000 of Howard and Okafor. I would consider this card a good buy at IPO.

Dallas Mavericks Team Card (1,000 @ $6.50)Dallas Mavericks 2004 eTopps

Target: 11 wins in November, 53 wins in regular season

Dallas has gotten off to a hot start this season, currently standing at 5-1. They have 10 games left in November and will only have to win 6 of them in order to make their performance bonus for the month. They look to have a good team again this year and for once it seems like their defense has improved. They've been able to put up 100+ points against all but 1 of their opponents while at the same time holding them to point totals in the 90s. They look they'll meet their November bonus and will be well on their way to reaching their season target as well. I would rate this card a good buy at IPO.

New York Knicks Team Card (1,000 @ $6.50)New York Knicks 2004 eTopps

Target: 7 wins in November, 44 wins in regular season

The Knicks are currently 1-2 and only have 10 games left for the month of November. Just like Dallas they'll need to win 6 more in order to meet their bonus. Dallas has a good shot at achieving this target but New York does not. I would expect this card to sell out and trade for a dollar or two below its IPO price. I would consider this card a bad buy at IPO.

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