After issuing the 2004 number one draft pick Dwight Howard in IPO week one and the number two draft pick Emeka Okafor in week two, it was predictable that week three of IPOs includes Ben Gordon, the number three draft pick. (Any bets on Shaun Livingston being in next week’s IPOs?) And after this year’s top sophomore, Lebron James, was released last week, it’s not surprising to see the second-highest rated sophomore, Carmelo Anthony, released this week. But I was surprised to see eTopps issue nine basketball cards this week rather than the more typical six. In the first few weeks, basketball IPOs competed against smaller releases of football and baseball playoff cards. But it would seem that eTopps would be better off to release somewhat fewer cards each week so that people might order more. A nine card release stretches casual eTopps or basketball fans’ dollars further. Perhaps, with lower print runs per card, eTopps needs to release more cards per week to meet minimum revenue thresholds, which would be a concern for eTopps’ financial future. Another concerning scenario, bolstered by the early terminations of the 2004 football and baseball sets prior to the issuance of all planned cards, is that eTopps has found that the average number of orders per card declines as each set progresses, so it is trying to catch early IPO excitement as the NBA season starts and the 2004 basketball set remains a novelty with good reviews for a well-designed image. Or perhaps it has learned that people will not order less when more cards are issued in the same week as set collectors and players’ fans buy regardless of the number of IPOs. A final reason could be that eTopps needs to have more 2004 cards issued for the team card and player performance games introduced as part of this set. Regardless of the reason, I find it unfortunate (perhaps because I have to write 50 percent more in this article!) and hope eTopps returns to an average of about 6 cards per week in coming IPO releases.

On to this week’s IPOs:

Andris Biedrins (1,000 @ $4.50)

The eighteen-year-old forward from Latvia, Biedrins was one of the most promising young European players, compared to the potential of Darko Milicic. His strength is on defense, particularly shot blocking, and the Golden State Warriers drafted him 11th in the 2004 draft. With his youth and lack of experience, he is a gamble, but with the 1,000 maximum print run and an IPO market cap of $4,500 he will fit in nicely behind the number 9 and 10 draft picks Iguodala and Jackson who have current market caps over $5,800. I recommend this as a WEAK BUY.

Ben Gordon (2,000 @ $5.00)

Gordon, the third pick in the 2004 NBA draft, led UConn to the 2004 NCAA championship. He had a tournament-high 21.2 average points per game in the 6 tournament games, and never missed any of UConn’s 106 games during his three seasons. Expected to be the Bulls starting shooting guard, Gordon will join a young team that will likely continue to struggle as they mature. While Gordon cannot compare to last year’s number three draft pick (Carmelo Anthony), he may mature into a perennial all-star. I recommend this as a WEAK BUY.

Carmelo Anthony (2,000 @ $5.00)

Carmelo Anthony returns for his second year in the NBA after an offseason plagued by the Olympics’ team disappointing performance and having marijuana found by airport security officials. But he also returns having demonstrated that he is a worthy peer of Lebron James. Last week’s second-year Lebron James card sold out and had first day high sales of $10.00. While that price may fall, it is a promising sign for a second-year card of Carmelo. Granted, Carmelo’s 2003 card sells for less than Lebron’s 2003 card, and the 2,000 print run for Carmelo in 2004 will be 40 percent of the 2003 card while Lebron’s 2004 card has a print run 20 percent of the 2004. Nonetheless, I expect that this card can hold near the IPO price in the short term. The long-term potential is even more promising despite the likelihood of annual releases and could have long-term potential as Carmelo Anthony matures and leads the rise of the Nuggets. I recommend BUY this card at IPO.

Jameer Nelson (1,000 @ $4.50)

Many expected Jameer Nelson to be picked higher than the twentieth pick in the NBA draft, but the consensus choice as college player of the year in 2004 was drafted at that place by Denver then traded to Orlando. The St. Joseph’s guard averaged more than 20 points per game in his senior year and finished with St. Joseph’s career records in scoring, assists, and steals. His strengths are his speed and ability to direct the ball to his teammates as he backs up Steve Francis at point guard. With the low price and print run, this card also rises above the 20th pick in my recommendations as a $4,500 market cap seems very reasonable. I give this card a WEAK BUY recommendation.

Kirk Snyder (1,000 @ $4.50)

Drafted by the Utah Jazz as the 16th pick as a junior out of UNLV, Snyder is respected for his strong all-around skills. He could develop into a solid player for the Jazz or any team, but is unlikely to emerge as a major star. The price and print run seem right, but there is not much potential for upside unless Snyder exceeds expectations. I recommend DO NOT BUY this card.

Kobe Bryant (1,000 @ $5.50)

Kobe hopes to put his trials (both on and off the court) behind him in 2004 as he becomes the clear leader of the Lakers. His all-star reputation, which at one point seemed to be on a path to become the preeminent player in the post-Jordan era, may hinge on this season as he either shines without Shaq and regains a positive attitude or rusts further if his play is merely excellent and his temperament is unreliable. His fourth eTopps card, this will be the shortest print for Kobe. His 2003 card has a recent 7-day average of $4.47 with 1,371 cards issued, while the 2002 card has a recent average price of $4.15 with a print run of 2,000. The only advantage this card has is that is will be his shortest printed card, and it should be able to match the 2003 card’s market cap of about $6,000. I recommend this card as a WEAK BUY.

Sebastian Telfair (2,000 @ $5.00)

Whereas some were surprised that Jameer Nelson was not picked higher than 20th, others were surprised that Portland picked Telfair as high as 13th in the 2004 draft. While Telfair was a great high school player and was successful at Louisville, scouts say that he has a lot more to learn to compete at the NBA level. He has great ball-handling skills, but will have to get stronger to compete at this level. I doubt that Telfair will sell out as the price and the maximum print run seem high. I recommend DO NOT BUY this card.

Cleveland Cavaliers Team Card (1,000 @ $6.50)

Last season, the Cavaliers finished with a 35-47 finish. Lebron James may be even stronger as he adjusts to the NBA, and the additions of Eric Snow, Drew Gooden, and others may help make up for the loss of Carlos Boozer. Insidehoops.com predicts a third place Central division finish with an improved record of 43-39. That would be better than the 40 wins eTopps requires in the season for a performance point, and 7 wins in November may also be feasible. Besides, it has Lebron on the card, which adds to its value as an in-hand card post-season. I recommend BUY this card at IPO.

Denver Nuggets Team Card (1,000 @ $6.50)

The Denver Nuggets finished last season with a 43-39 record, losing in the first round of the playoffs to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Nonetheless, the winning record and playoff appearance were refreshing improvements for Denver. The question is whether Carmelo Anthony can continue to lead the Nugget’s revival. Insidehoops.com predicts a second place Northwest division finish for the Nuggets and an improved 49-33 record. Etopps set the performance bonus threshold at 46 wins for the season and 9 wins in November. Denver may eke these out, so if you enjoy the team cards this may be a good risk to take. I recommend this as a WEAK BUY.

My recommended best buy this week is a toss-up between Carmelo Anthony and Ben Gordon. But, as always, these are just my recommendations for you to use in comparison to your own insights and purchasing strategies.