About one year ago, I wrote about the first week of 2003 basketball IPOs. At the time, the eTopps market was nearly as depressed as it is today, but I was "cautiously hopeful" about the 2003 basketball set. Excerpts from last year’s first basketball IPO Insight article:

"eTopps' third season of basketball IPOs tips off with the eTopps market continuing a drastic market correction.... While this has been a tough year for most eTopps collectors, the market correction also may represent exactly what eTopps needed. Those of us remaining are, by definition, wiser and more dedicated. While the eTopps message boards show plenty of complaining and arguing, it also shows a strong brotherhood (and small sisterhood) of eTopps collectors. Many, but not all, of the changes customers asked for in early 2003 have been at least partially implemented by eTopps... . If eTopps can endure this painful correction, it will be a healthier product in the long run...."

Well, eTopps has endured to date and the 2003 basketball set remains among the most successful series (still nearly 40 percent above IPO prices). But a disappointing 2004 baseball set and the dilution of core eTopps collectors’ money among too many cards has exaggerated the annual market downturn. I know that I am a much more conservative IPO buyer entering the 2004 basketball set than I was for the 2003 basketball set, in part because I am near the limit of my desired modest investment in eTopps, especially with few cards showing growth from IPO (but lots of bargains on the secondary market). I’ll still be buying a few cards of favorite players and teams because I still love these cards, this platform, and this community. But most of my eTopps funds will be used to try to solidify and diversify my position in existing sets by dollar averaging down in the secondary market. On the positive side, the design of the 2004 basketball cards is attractive, and eTopps is extending the popular team cards to basketball and indicates that player "performance targets" will be set once the league approves them. Nonetheless, I’ll be very cautious in the early weeks of this set, and hope that reasonable print runs and interest in team cards or other games will draw me further into the 2004 basketball set.

Dwight Howard (3,000 @ $5.00)

Dwight Howard represents the third high-school player to be the top NBA draft pick in four years. The question is whether he will be the success that Lebron James seems to be, or the disappointment that Kwame Brown remains. The 18-year-old forward from Atlanta’s Southwest Christian Academy was named high-school player of the year, and scouts are excited that he has gained bulk and an inch in height since being drafted. Nonetheless, expect him to fall somewhere between Kwame and Lebron in impact, and likely will take a few years to mature in the NBA. The 3,000 print run is high in the current market, but for $5.00 it is hard to turn down the prospect of the #1 draft pick. I recommend BUY this card.

Devin Harris (2,000 @ $5.00)

The Washington Wizards used their top draft pick, fifth overall in the 2004 draft, to pick Devin Harris, then immediately traded the rights for Harris (as well as Jerry Stackhouse and Christian Laettner) to Dallas for Antawn Jamison. Harris is expected to backup Jason Terry as point guard for the Mavericks. Harris played three years at the University of Wisconsin, averaging nearly 15 points per game and had 164 steals in 3 seasons. Harris is a strong athlete with a bright future, but the current eTopps market and high print run cap make me cautious. This card is borderline, but I weakly recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Andre Iguodala (2,000 @ $5.00)

Philadelphia drafted Iguodala as the ninth draft pick in 2004. Andre Igoudala played two seasons at Arizona. At forward, Iguodala made the All-PAC-10 team and led his team in rebounds, steals, and assists. Scouts compare Iguodala to Scottie Pippen in his versatility. Unless the print runs are held low, though, there are too many unproven rookies in this set to gamble on all of them. Thus, I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Kris Humphries (2,000 @ $4.00)

Kris Humphries was the fourteenth pick in the 2004 draft for the Utah Jazz after playing only one season at the University of Minnesota. He was the Freshman of the Year for the Big Ten, and was one of the top rebounders in college ball. He averaged more than 21 points and 10 rebounds per game. A good pick up for the Jazz and a rookie to watch in 2004, but again a cautious recommendation that you DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Shaquille O’Neal (2,000 @ $4.00)

After four first-time eTopps rookie cards, the final NBA player card is a fourth-year card for Shaq. The change to the Miami Heat after torment-filled years as a Laker, Shaq hopes to reclaim his mega-stardom in Miami. While a new team helps, it is hard to see how this card will hold its IPO price other than through a potential price increase from performance bonus or game-playing value. O’Neal’s 2003 card sold 1,070 and has a recent 7-day average of about $4.00. The 2004 card is likely to also sell at least 1,000 with the potential for higher hold-backs. For Shaq fans only. I recommend DO NOT buy this card.

Miami Heat Team Card (1,000 @ $6.50)

eTopps extends the team card concept to basketball, starting with the Miami Heat. The team cards were one of the few high points of the 2004 baseball set, but have been less popular in 2004 football. Perhaps the ability to have monthly as well as season targets, as with the baseball team cards, will give the basketball team cards more excitement than with football. Even with concern about the devaluing of reward points, catalog reforms and more ways to use points have also made them easier for most people to use. The Miami Heat would need to have 11 wins in November and 53 in the season to get reward points. Both seem high given that the Heat play 16 games in November and won 42 games in 2003. But Shaq will add excitement and some wins, so I expect the Heat will win some monthly targets even if not November’s target. If you want the excitement of team cards, I suggest this as a WEAK BUY.

My recommended best buy this week is Dwight Howard. But remember that these are just my opinions for your consideration relative to your own strategies and preferences. Buy carefully in today’s market, but if you enjoy eTopps and the NBA, don’t quibble over earning or losing a few cents and enjoy the hobby and your collection.