Below is just my opinion and analysis of this week’s IPO. They are offered only as opinion and to encourage discussion. Looking forward to your own opinions and comments.

Deion Sanders (1,750 @ $5.50)

"Prime Time" has now proved that if you suggest enough on a message board that it is possible to get certain players an eTopps card. He came out of retirement after finding himself bored without the game and is now intent on helping the Ravens win a SuperBowl. He is not the first retiree to return to the game, Michael Jordan and Cris Carter couldn’t stay away but eventually had to leave again without reaching their goals. Deion has already shown flashes of his previous greatness as he picked off Mark Brunell last Sunday and immediately began to hold the ball up in the air as he high stepped 20 yards into oncoming Redskins players. There is no doubt that Deion is a great athlete, even at the age of 37. The only question is whether his card can IPO at the $10K barrier and not lose half its value within a week. There are several defensive player cards from the 2001 Football set and very few of them are at or above the $10K level, and those have much shorter print runs than Deion’s expected 1,750. The highest valued non-rookie defensive card in the 2003 set is Ray Lewis who sits at about $6K-$7K. Deion is the first defender to be released in the 2004 set in a week where eTopps is selling two of them. This is a little worrisome, as eTopps wants to get these cards out at the same time before we can see how the market reacts to them. Because defenders from 2001 can barely reach a $10K market cap even with SP status I can’t see this card holding IPO. It would have had much greater potential if it was capped at 1,250 instead of 1,750. Realistically, I expect a sell out but even with the most optimistic mindset I can’t see this card selling under 1,250. Deion is a household name and the flippers know this and want to profit from it. Save your money and pick it up cheaper on the secondary, $10K is far too high for a 37-year old retiree. I would consider this card a bad buy at IPO.

Mewelde Moore (1,250 @ $4.75)

If you were lucky enough to catch the Minnesota-Houston game then you got to see one of the biggest offensive shootouts of this season. While Culpepper has been unstoppable so far, a rookie named Mewelde Moore played an integral role in the Vikings’ gameplan. He averaged 4.6 YPC but only got to run the ball 20 times while Culpepper made 50 passing attempts. What was equally as impressive were Mewelde’s 12 catches for 90 yards. Unfortunately, it’s difficult to say whether or not these statistics reflect anything of this player’s ability. Every single running back that has been plugged into the Vikings offense recently has excelled with ease. Additionally they have a platoon of backs including Michael Bennett, Moe Williams, and Onterrio Smith. While these others currently face injuries and suspensions it is only a matter of time before they return to the lineup. The Vikings just drafted Onterrio Smith in 2003 and Michael Bennett in 2001, I don’t think they’re about to give up on them already. While the cap of 1,250 for a rookie running back might be tempting I would try and resist as much as possible. In my opinion, just because a rookie takes advantage of one starting opportunity is no reason for him to receive a card. I don’t see Mewelde having a consistent impact in the Vikings offense for at least a couple more years. Because of that it’d be silly to invest and take on risk at this point. If you still don’t believe me just look at these other cards and then make your decision: Travis Stephens, T.J. Duckett, Maurice Morris, Ladell Betts, Artose Pinner, Justin Fargas, Musa Smith. I think you can figure out whose card will eventually be added to that list. I would consider this card a bad buy at IPO.

Mike Vanderjagt (1,250 @ $4.75)

While an NFL MVP has referred to Vanderjagt as just a "dumb kicker", he is still one of the most consistent kickers in the league. His team gets a lot of use from his leg as he plays for one of the best offenses in the NFL. To figure out if this card is worth the investment all we have to do is look to Vinatieri who IPO’d earlier this season. It traded below IPO the day after its release and hasn’t had a 7-day average above its initial price since then. It also only cost $4.00 so you should have a good idea of where this card is going. Much like every card these days, if you want this one wait to get it on the secondary market where it will be cheaper. Flippers will force a sellout and you may even get it for half price within a week. As I write this there is 3% of Vinatieri available on eBay. That should give you an idea of how cheap this card will be after IPO. I would consider this card an incredibly bad buy at IPO.

Takeo Spikes (1,250 @ $4.75)

Much like Deion, Takeo has received a considerable amount of message board support. He is considered to be one of the NFL’s best linebackers but always seems to be playing for the worst teams. This card appears a bit more attractive than Deion because of the 1,250 print run. That will bring the number of cards close to the print run of 2003 Ray Lewis. However, Takeo is not Ray and while Baltimore isn’t doing that great this year, Buffalo has been absolutely horrendous. Because of that I can’t see this card holding IPO. He is considered a good player but it’s hard to defend that when his team has yet to win a game this season. Optimistically I’d value this card at about $4K, so even if it only sells 1,000 you’re still going to be down about 20% after IPO. Just pick it up on the secondary. I would consider this card a bad buy at IPO.

Tiki Barber (1,250 @ $4.75)

Tiki is having a great year thus far and deservedly so. There were talks of Ron Dayne stealing carries and getting more playing time but those have been silenced as Tiki now leads the league in rushing and total yards. But even so, do these early results warrant a 4th card in today’s eTopps market? Tiki’s previous cards have market caps of $10K, $4K and $3K. This leaves absolutely no room for a 4th card. Additionally, Tiki’s 2003 is now being abandoned with a print run of 1,338. In a time when rookie running backs are having trouble holding IPO there is little to no reason to buy a 4th issue of a veteran back. Leave this one for the Tiki and Giants fans because you’re not going to make any money by purchasing it at IPO. I would consider this card an incredibly bad buy at IPO.

Dallas Cowboys Team Card (1,750 @ $6.50)

Target: 3.5 wins after week 8, 8.5 wins after regular season

Wk 1:  L 35-17
Wk 2:  W 19-12
Wk 3:  W 21-18
Wk 4:  bye
Wk 5:  L 26-10
Wk 6:  vs. PIT
Wk 7:  @ GB
Wk 8:  vs. DET
Wk 9:  @ CIN
Wk 10:  vs. PHI
Wk 11:  @ BAL
Wk 12:  vs. CHI
Wk 13:  @ SEA
Wk 14:  vs. NO
Wk 15:  @ PHI
Wk 16:  vs. WAS
Wk 17:  @ NYG

The Dallas Cowboys’ fate is pretty difficult to predict at this point. They’ve pulled off wins against Cleveland and Washington but right now those are two of the worst teams in the league. Dallas also got smoked by Minnesota and New York (G). I don’t see them beating Pittsburgh and would say that their games against Green Bay and Detroit are at best 50-50. The second half of the season is not any easier either. Add that to the fact that Philadelphia and New York are dominating the division and I would expect 0 points from this card. I don’t like the Cowboys winning 2 out of their next 3 and their schedule is far too difficult to guarantee 7 of the next 12. This card is way too risky to purchase at full price. Don’t expect an SP either, too many Cowboys fans. I would consider this card a bad buy at IPO.

Miami Dolphins Team Card (1,750 @ $6.50)

Target: .5 wins after week 8, 3.5 wins after regular season

Wk 1:  L 17-7
Wk 2:  L 16-13
Wk 3:  L 13-3
Wk 4:  L 17-9
Wk 5:  L 24-10
Wk 6:  @ BUF
Wk 7:  vs. STL
Wk 8:  @ NYJ
Wk 9:  vs. ARI
Wk 10:  bye
Wk 11:  @ SEA
Wk 12:  @ SF
Wk 13:  vs. BUF
Wk 14:  @ DEN
Wk 15:  vs. NE
Wk 16:  vs. CLE
Wk 17:  @ BAL

If only Jim Mora Sr. were currently coaching the Miami Dolphins we would be blessed with hearing "Playoffs?!?!? Playoffs?!?!? We’ll be lucky to win one!". When I think about the Miami Dolphins this year I think about Jim Mora and his most memorable quote. The Dolphins have no chance to make the playoffs and they indeed would be lucky to win a single game. I really wish eTopps would have put Ricky Williams on this card. The card already is a joke and having Ricky on it would have been the ultimate comedy. I honestly would have wanted to own a card of possibly one of the worst team’s in NFL history, and Ricky played a huge part in making them so bad. It also would have been nice to have Wannstedt’s picture on the card because we won’t be seeing him anymore after this season. I still think the Dolphins have a shot at going 0-16 and if they do then I damn well want this card. A half a win target? What a joke. The target on this card should have been 0. eTopps gave away free points for buying the Colts, why not do the same with the Dolphins? No one expects them to win 1 of their next 3 games. The only people buying this card will be the SP hunters and because of that I think it will sell above many of the low PR teams from last week. I suppose if they win this weekend you could buy one, if you like paying $3 per point. I would consider this card an incredibly bad buy at IPO.

New Orleans Saints Team Card (1,750 @ $6.50)

Target: 2.5 wins after week 8, 8.5 wins after regular season

Wk 1:  L 21-7
Wk 2:  W 30-27
Wk 3:  W 28-25
Wk 4:  L 34-10
Wk 5:  L 20-17
Wk 6:  vs. MIN
Wk 7:  @ OAK
Wk 8:  bye
Wk 9:  @ SD
Wk 10:  vs. KC
Wk 11:  vs. DEN
Wk 12:  @ ATL
Wk 13:  vs. CAR
Wk 14:  @ DAL
Wk 15:  @ TB
Wk 16:  vs. ATL
Wk 17:  @ CAR

Oh the Saints... with the amount of talent this team has it’s amazing that they can lose games to the Arizona Cardinals and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They got unlucky with the injury to Deuce McAllister but he should be back in the lineup this week. I would predict the Saints to get stomped by the offensive juggernaut that is the Minnesota Vikings. They could win the game against Oakland but do you want to bet $6.50 that they will? I don’t. Assuming they meet their half season bonus, they would have to win 6 of their last 9 games to make their season bonus. Based on what this team has shown me so far I don’t see that happening. Atlanta looks like they will win the division, plus the Saints like to choke in the last few weeks every year so that they don’t make the playoffs. This is just an underachieving team that needs a new coach and has no business in your port. I would consider this card a risky buy at IPO.

Oakland Raiders Team Card (1,750 @ $6.50)

Target: 3.5 wins after week 8, 7.5 wins after regular season

Wk 1:  L 24-21
Wk 2:  W 13-10
Wk 3:  W 30-20
Wk 4:  L 30-17
Wk 5:  L 35-14
Wk 6:  vs. DEN
Wk 7:  vs. NO
Wk 8:  @ SD
Wk 9:  @ CAR
Wk 10:  bye
Wk 11:  vs. SD
Wk 12:  @ DEN
Wk 13:  vs. KC
Wk 14:  @ ATL
Wk 15:  vs. TEN
Wk 16:  @ KC
Wk 17:  vs. JAC

I have no idea what the Oakland Raiders are doing this year. Kerry Collins is attempting to set a record for turnovers, they have a new running back every week and they refuse to work one of the greatest receivers of all time, Jerry Rice, into their offense. They beat Buffalo, but who hasn’t? They beat Tampa Bay, but who loses to Tampa Bay? Only the Saints apparently. I really don’t get this team. I don’t understand their gameplan, I don’t know who their playmakers are, and I don’t see how they are going to win games this season. I don’t think of the Oakland Raiders as a .500 team, I think of them below that. Thus I don’t think they’ll meet either of their targets and they obviously won’t make the playoffs. I’d buy any of the other team cards this week over this one. I would consider this card an incredibly bad buy at IPO.