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Below is my opinion and analysis of this week’s IPOs. They are offered only as opinion to consider when making your own buying decisions. I'm looking forward to your own opinions and comments.
Tom Brady is a two-time Super Bowl winner and still has a long career ahead of him. His eTopps cards have seen nothing but success so far with both being valued around $25,000 market cap. This card offers a nice alternative to the previous two as it’s almost a third of the 2002 print run and it’s about an eighth of the price of the 2003. In theory this card would be a great buy but other star QBs such as Culpepper and Manning have done very little in terms of appreciating. Either the 2004 set is greatly undervalued at this point or people just don’t have any more money to spend on these cards. I would think this card should be worth twice as much as its IPO but based on what other cards have done I don’t see that happening. I still think it’s a pretty good card and probably the best buy this week. I would rate this card a safe buy at IPO.
Sometimes I wonder if kickers would get any of the respect they do today if it were not for fantasy football. I’m willing to bet they would not and instead only a few of the high profile ones would be known. Well if this were the case then Vinatieri would fall into the known category. He has won 2 Super Bowl’s for the Patriots and I think if you looked up the word clutch in an NFL dictionary, you might find his picture. Nevertheless, the kicker position is not a glamorous position. How many fans have you ever seen wearing a kicker jersey? This will be the first eTopps card of a Kicker, so in case you’ve always wanted to start a Master eTopps Kicker set then let the fun begin. Because this will be a first we can really only compare it to another first this season, the offensive lineman Robert Gallery. However, that card is a rookie of the #2 overall draft pick and has a larger PR. But it is also of a player at a position that does not receive much glory. I can see the value in the Gallery card because it is a rookie. Unfortunately this card has ‘game piece’ written all over it. As for the PB, Vinatieri has gone for the required 36 attempts only once in his previous 8 NFL seasons. Then again, he’s surpassed the required 66% FG made percentage ever year he has played. I only see true Vinatieri fans, New England fans, and SP hunters having interest in this card. With the maximum 1,250 I don’t see it selling less than 1,000. Gallery is a rookie and is barely hanging onto $5,000 market cap. Vinatieri is not a rookie and may arguably be less desirable than a rookie lineman. I would rate this card a risky buy at IPO.
Boo has gotten off to an extremely slow start this season. If you have him in a fantasy league then you know what I’m talking about. Boo fumbled in week 1 and tallied -1 fantasy points. He did nothing in week 2 for 0 points but finally redeemed himself in week 3 putting up a solid 3 fantasy points. Ugh... Why has Boo been performing so poorly? Apparently he’s in Haslett’s doghouse due to his lack of blocking skills. At the same time the Saints have another good TE in Ernie Conwell. Because of this I think Boo will see less playing time and will be a smaller part of the Saints offense. There are so many more popular Tight Ends that have eTopps cards; it’s difficult to imagine why anyone would want a Boo Williams. Expect this to be the card that the SP hunters devour and subsequently send over 1,000 PR. Other than the chance of SP I’d stay away from non-rookie TEs that are not even an integral part of their team’s offense. I’d consider this card an incredibly bad buy at IPO.
Chris Brown has looked amazing so far this season. He’s averaging 5.4 YPC and has rushed for over 100 yards in all 3 games he’s played. He looks like the real deal, so this card is a no brainer right? Maybe not. 2 cards have been released this season that are the 2nd issue to a previous rookie card (R. Johnson and C. Johnson). There was a great deal of debate about whether these new issues would cannibalize the rookie or whether the print run would make the card valuable. So far both Rudi and Chad are trading below IPO. It appears that people would much rather invest their money in the true rookie card instead of a reprint. This card will fall the exact same fate, especially when the rookie costs only roughly $3-$4 more and has a smaller print run. This card might have had value had it been limited to 1,250 and sold at $4.00, but the rookie is only slightly ahead on market cap which means there is absolutely no room for growth in this card. I don’t know if eTopps forgot about Chris’s rookie card but they sure got ambitious with this IPO. I’d consider this card an incredibly bad buy at IPO.
Drew finally decided to drop the baseball bat and pick up the football, joining the Dallas Cowboys this season. He got some playing time in preseason but has since rode the bench behind the veteran Vinny Testaverde. This card is quite interesting because Drew already has a card in the 2003 Baseball set. Many people have picked up that card as it is rare to find a cross-sport pre-rookie card. However, its value has been falling recently and I think it will continue to do so as eToppers decide they would rather own a rookie football card of Drew instead. Schaub is the only other rookie QB to debut at a 1,750 maximum print run, but he also sold at $5.50. Is Drew worth the extra buck even though it will be a while before we see his talent on the field? I don’t think so but that’s for you to decide. This card is valued at IPO nearly at twice the market cap that it should be. If it sells over 1,000, which it will, prepare to see a major drop from $6.50. I’d consider this card an incredibly bad buy at IPO.
This would have been a great card to have as a rookie, but a 2nd year card at a 1,250 print run doesn’t seem too bad either. Lee has been attempting to shed off some injuries and currently sits behind William Green on the depth chart. It’s difficult to say which of these backs will have more of a future in Cleveland. Green has been plagued with off the field troubles and Suggs has been nagged by injury. With so much up in the air it’s difficult to decide whether or not this card has any value. It’s one thing to pick up a rookie who will ride the pine but a 2nd year card of a backup doesn’t exactly scream solid investment. It may somewhere down the line but it’s not too likely in the immediate future. This card will definitely sell out and I expect it to be sold to more flippers than collectors. But I like it a lot more at 1,250 than 1,750. I would rate this card a risky buy at IPO.
Target: 4.5 wins after week 8, 9.5 wins after regular season
Wk 1: W 21-19
Wk 2: W 34-17
Wk 3: W 6-3
Wk 4: @ CAR
Wk 5: vs. DET
Wk 6: vs. SD
Wk 7: @ KC
Wk 8: @ DEN
Wk 9: bye
Wk 10: vs. TB
Wk 11: @ NYG
Wk 12: vs. NO
Wk 13: @ TB
Wk 14: vs. OAK
Wk 15: vs. CAR
Wk 16: @ NO
Wk 17: @ SEA
You look at the Falcons schedule and basically the only good teams they play are Carolina and Seattle. I did not expect the Falcons to start the season 3-0 but I also didn’t expect them to almost lose to Arizona and end up winning 6-3. I like that they have their bye week in week 9. This gives them 5 games before week 9 in which to win only 2 more games. I would consider this as close as a lock to the first half bonus as you can get. If they beat Carolina on Sunday you can pretty much guarantee they’ll win one of their next four games. Given their easy schedule I also like them to meet their season bonus and possibly make the playoffs. They looked a bit suspect last week but I think they can only get better as the season goes on. I would rate this card a definite buy at IPO.
Target: 4.5 wins after week 8, 9.5 wins after regular season
Wk 1: W 13-10
Wk 2: W 7-6
Wk 3: W 15-12
Wk 4: vs. IND
Wk 5: @ SD
Wk 6: vs. KC
Wk 7: @ IND
Wk 8: @ HOU
Wk 9: bye
Wk 10: vs. DET
Wk 11: vs. TEN
Wk 12: @ MIN
Wk 13: vs. PIT
Wk 14: vs. CHI
Wk 15: @ GB
Wk 16: vs. HOU
Wk 17: @ OAK
The Jaguars are another team that I did not expect to start 3-0. They also have their bye week after the midway point so they’ll have 5 more games in which to win 2. They have to play Indianapolis twice over that stretch but they also get to face San Diego, Kansas City and Houston. I don’t feel as confident about the Jaguars as I do the Falcons however. They pulled out their wins against Buffalo and Denver from I don’t know where. There defense is legit but their offense looks very questionable. Still people are calling the Jaguars the dark horse this year and defense does win championships. I still think that the Jaguars have been lucky so far and that their luck will eventually run out. I would consider this card a risky buy at IPO.
Target: 3.5 wins after week 8, 9.5 wins after regular season
Wk 1: W 17-7
Wk 2: L 31-17
Wk 3: L 15-12
Wk 4: @ SD
Wk 5: @ GB
Wk 6: vs. HOU
Wk 7: @ MIN
Wk 8: vs. CIN
Wk 9: bye
Wk 10: vs. CHI
Wk 11: @ JAC
Wk 12: @ HOU
Wk 13: @ IND
Wk 14: vs. KC
Wk 15: @ OAK
Wk 16: vs. DEN
Wk 17: vs. DET
The Titans have gotten off to a rough start this season and currently stand at 1-2. McNair has done little in terms of performance and the team has been carried by their running back Chris Brown. Because of this rough start I don’t like the targets that have been set on this card. In order for Tennessee to meet their first half bonus they’ll have to go at least 3-2. In order for them to meet their regular season bonus they’ll have to go 9-4. I don’t like those targets for any team, let alone one that starts the season 1-2. I guess you could wait and see if they win against San Diego this week but eTopps still set the bar too high. This card is a bad investment and should become the new team SP. I would consider this card an incredibly bad buy at IPO.
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