Below is my opinion and analysis of this week’s IPOs. They are offered only as opinion to consider when making your own buying decisions.

Chad Johnson (1,750 @ $4.50)

eTopps has finally decided to grace us with a second card for Mr. Johnson. Chad is a lively playmaker and is highly sought after in all fantasy leagues. As an owner of his rookie card it pains me a little to see that buyers now have a much cheaper option, but I’m sure the collectors out there are thankful... and I’m not that worried. But anyways, what can we compare this card to? Luckily, Rudi Johnson IPO’d 2 weeks ago and has a lot of similar attributes to this card. Both debuted with considerably short print runs in 2001 as rookie cards. Additionally, neither have had a second card until this year. I was very bullish before Rudi’s debut with his rookie being valued at $18k, I saw no reason for him to fall below IPO. Apparently I was wrong and Rudi is easily trading in the low $3 range. With a 1,250 print run and such a large variance between market caps, does this mean that Rudi is a great buying opportunity or that there is no market for a second card when the rookie is already so great? Recent veteran WR debuts of Terrell Owens and Marvin Harrison are valued at $7k and $5k. Terrell Owens and Marvin Harrison > Chad Johnson. Thus, the only argument to buy this card is that there is such a low population of Chads out there. But I think from Rudi’s debut with a 500 shorter print run we can see that is not a factor. I would consider this a very risky buy at IPO.

Chad Pennington (1,750 @ $5.00)

This will be Pennington’s 4th eTopps card and the market caps of his previous years look like $30k, $8k and $10k. Chad didn’t get to play much last season but he is now back and healthy, looking to make a playoff run. So the question on hand is whether Chad can sustain 3 cards in 3 years at the $8k+ level. Right off the bat my answer would be no. However, the 2004 issue does provide logical alternatives to Chad’s other cards. It will have nearly half the print run of the 2002 card but with twice the price. Additionally, it should have about twice the print run of the 2003 card but with half the price. That being said, it seems like there is absolutely no upside for this card. At the same time, I think I’d rather invest my money in Culpepper, a better QB, who already has an established 1,250 print run and a lowly $4 price tag. I would consider this a very risky buy at IPO.

Larry Fitzgerald (2,500 @ $7.00)

Mr. Fitzgerald has been the hyped stud wide receiver that NFL fans have been waiting for. Thanks to all that hype, eTopps has decided to raise the bar and slap a hefty $7.00 price tag on this one. By now you should have noticed that all IPOs have been increasing in price recently. I guess eTopps wants people to lose even more money at IPO but hopefully there will be some shorter prints in the future because of it. Nevertheless, all signs are currently pointing to this card being doomed. Why? 2 words, Anquan Boldin. Boldin basically had the best rookie WR season of any receiver other than Randy Moss. You couldn’t have asked for anything better from him. Regardless of his performance, his card IPO’d at $6.50 and plummeted during the season all the way down to $3.00. Eventually people got their senses back and the card increased in price but today has once again crashed due to injury concerns. So why is that eToppers can be so fickle regarding a player who can only be compared to Randy Moss? Is it the 3500 PR? Perhaps. Is it that he didn’t get enough hype and was drafted in the 2nd round? Maybe. I also think a major contributing factor is that he’s simply stuck playing for the Arizona Cardinals who probably have the least fan support in the NFL. At $15k I don’t see Fitzgerald having much upside unless you truly believe that he’s the next Randy Moss. However, even then we’ve seen that might not even matter. I would consider this card an incredibly bad buy at IPO.

Lee Evans (1,750 @ $5.00)

I don’t know about you but I’m really starting to tire of rookie WR cards. There is a big difference between QBs/RBs and WRs. WRs are known for blooming in their 3rd year. They are lucky to play in the slot position in their first year and based on their performance they might even get to be the 2nd receiver the following year. With all of the unknowns and having to wait that much time to see if you’ve got a stud or a dud, I’m not willing to risk money at IPO on these guys, especially when this is the 6th one thrown at us so far. It’s difficult to argue buying a working project at 1,750 $5.00 when you could have done the same with Rashaun Woods at 1,250 $4.00. Maybe you’d like to argue that those possible statistics might cause a shorter print run. But look back to 2003, Taylor Jacobs and Bryant Johnson have print runs of 800 that many of you would enjoy. Are they worth anything because of that? Taylor is not, Bryant is a couple bucks. So I guess you should buy this card if you think it will sell 800, but with Fantasy and catalog holdbacks I’m not so sure that’s going to happen. I would consider this card an incredibly bad buy at IPO.

Randy Moss (1,250 @ $5.00)

I apologize if I’m sounding pretty pessimistic this week. You’re probably hoping, as I was, now that we’ve come to the best wide receiver in the NFL that it has to be a buy recommendation. I wish it was, but it is not. This will be Randy’s 5th card and with the exception of 2002, all other versions have relatively short print runs. Because of that this card brings absolutely nothing new to the table. We don’t need to compare it to anything other than the 2003 card. It has a print run of 1,050 and IPO’d at $6.50. Since then this card has been all over the place, reaching as high as $8 and falling as low as $4. It’s currently at about $6k, the exact amount that the 2004 is attempting to debut. Will there be any reason to have the 2004 card at a higher PR than the 2003? No. I would consider this a very risky buy at IPO.

Steven Jackson (1,750 @ $5.00)

Finally! The one good card debuting this week at IPO. Steven Jackson has shown flashes of brilliance early in this year of football. He was drafted above Julius Jones and will be the heir to Marshall Faulk in St. Louis. With Marshall’s recent inability to play an entire NFL season without getting injured, it is only a matter of time before Martz hands over the reins. This guy is going to be a stud and I think he and Julius are going to be the 2 Princes in this set with Eli being King. Julius is up to a $13k market cap and there is no reason for Jackson to not be valued the same. I would consider this card a definite buy at IPO.

Houston Texans Team Card (1,750 @ $6.50)

Target: 2.5 wins after week 8, ??? wins after regular season (eTopps glitch)

Wk 1:  L 27-20
Wk 2:  @ DET
Wk 3:  @ KC
Wk 4:  vs. OAK
Wk 5:  vs. MIN
Wk 6:  @ TEN
Wk 7:  bye
Wk 8:  vs. JAC
Wk 9:  @ DEN
Wk 10:  @ IND
Wk 11:  vs. GB
Wk 12:  vs. TEN
Wk 13:  @ NYJ
Wk 14:  vs. IND
Wk 15:  @ CHI
Wk 16:  @ JAC
Wk 17:  vs. CLE

Unfortunately the Texans started off the season by losing to what is considered to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. Was it a fluke or just a taste of things to come? I picked San Diego in that game because I have always found trouble in finding anything to like about the Houston Texans. To me they aren’t much different from their first year as an expansion team. With 1 loss in the books they will now have to go 3-3 in order to meet their PB. I can see them beating Detroit and Oakland. They will lose to KC, Minnesota and Tennessee. So the question is whether they will beat Jacksonville. Luckily you don’t have to answer that question until week 8. Thus I would recommend that you wait on this card and make sure they do indeed beat Detroit and Oakland. After all, they were favored to beat San Diego. At the least wait and see if they beat Detroit this weekend. If they lose cancel your order. Texans make the playoffs? Not this year. I would consider this card a very risky buy at IPO.

New York Giants Team Card (1,750 @ $6.50)

Target: 2.5 wins after week 8, ??? wins after regular season (eTopps glitch)

Wk 1:  L 31-17
Wk 2:  vs. WAS
Wk 3:  vs. CLE
Wk 4:  @ GB
Wk 5:  @ DAL
Wk 6:  bye
Wk 7:  vs. DET
Wk 8:  @ MIN
Wk 9:  vs. CHI
Wk 10:  @ ARI
Wk 11:  vs. ATL
Wk 12:  vs. PHI
Wk 13:  @ WAS
Wk 14:  @ BAL
Wk 15:  vs. PIT
Wk 16:  @ CIN
Wk 17:  vs. DAL

Unfortunately the Giants also started their season with a loss forcing them to go 3-3 in order to meet their PB. It’s difficult to say that this team will do much this year. First year under a new head coach that many of the players hate. A QB controversy in the works. One of the worst offensive lines in the game. They could possibly beat Cleveland, Detroit and Dallas. I don’t think they will beat Washington, Green Bay or Minnesota. So I’d wait and see if they beat Washington this weekend. If they do it’s a blessing and you’ll only need to win 2 out of the 3 possibilities. If they don’t I’d throw in the towel just like most Giants fans out there this year. The Giants will not make the playoffs. I would consider this card a very risky buy at IPO.

Seattle Seahawks Team Card (1,750 @ $6.50)

Target: 4.5 wins after week 8, ??? wins after regular season (eTopps glitch)

Wk 1:  W 21-7
Wk 2:  @ TB
Wk 3:  vs. SF
Wk 4:  bye
Wk 5:  vs. STL
Wk 6:  @ NE
Wk 7:  @ ARI
Wk 8:  vs. CAR
Wk 9:  @ SF
Wk 10:  @ STL
Wk 11:  vs. MIA
Wk 12:  vs. BUF
Wk 13:  vs. DAL
Wk 14:  @ MIN
Wk 15:  @ NYJ
Wk 16:  vs. ARI
WK 17:  vs. SEA

Seattle started off the season with a win and looked quite capable in doing so. They are almost everyone’s pick to win the NFC west this year and I’d be pretty surprised if they missed the playoffs altogether. Their only tough games up until week 8 are against St. Louis, New England and Carolina. Have to figure they’ll win at least 1 of them, the rest are pretty much locks which means this card should meet its week 8 PB. With that expectation and the belief that they will make the playoffs this seems like an easy 4 PB card at the least. I would rate this card a definite buy at IPO.