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IPO InsightWill Eli Manning spoil collectors this week?

By Sean Cook (e-mail)

August 23, 2004


Opening Kick: Week one was a memorable one with Kellen Winslow and T.O., not to mention some good team cards. This week the young rookie stars continue with Eli Manning, one of the top rookies in the NFL, and Roy Williams (not to be confused with the Defensive Back from Dallas). Both of these rookies are going to help out the set and be a big boost to all the flippers and shillers out there. Then you also have the tiny groups who go out there and corner markets to ensure that they own all of one card - whatever... This week is a great week and I am going to give you the right cards to buy and tell you how not to lose money (or at least attempt to). If only I had followed my advice I might not be in the hole at this point.

Anyways, around here it has been super busy. I am working the night shift in helping uptrain a unit that is deploying to Iraq, 3d ID. So right now I am staring at a huge digital screen with unit symbols all over it. Remember that these picks listed below are done with research and common sense. Do not trust my opinion. Simply use this as a tool, a guide if you will, to develop your own buying strategy. Let's roll!

Brian Westbrook (1,250 @ $4.00)Brian Westbrook 2004 eTopps

Brian is a sure thing to be the #1 starter at RB for the Eagles due to the Buckhalter injury. Brian is in his third year with the Eagles. He went to college right down the road (or perhaps up the road is more like it) at Villanova. Up to now he has seen limited playing time but anything can happen this year. With per-carry averages of 4.2 and 5.2 the past two years, this small back is out to set the league on fire. Though a great little back and possible fantasy, he is just a decent eTopps card. A decent price and low PR might lure some in but this card is a better pickup on the secondary market until he proves himself as a starter. DON'T BUY.

Daunte Culpepper (1,250 @ $4.00)Daunte Culpepper 2004 eTopps

Entering his 6th year out of the University of Central Florida, Daunte has proven himself as one of the top five QB's in the league and is still getting better. He has thrown for over 3,400 yards in three of the past four years, including 90 touchdowns in that span. This will be his fourth eTopps card and I have serious doubts as to whether it will be able to get lower than his 2001 eTopps card print run. The price is a very attractive one. However, the PR should have been about 1,000 instead of 1,250. I rerckon he'll be a lock to reach his PB but it is still not enough to make this card a sure thing. DON'T BUY.

Eli Manning (3,750 @ $7.00)Eli Manning 2004 eTopps

The Giants did release Kerry Collins to make room for the contract of this young rookie; however they turned right around and swooped up a cheaper, experienced QB who could come in and start -- Kurt Warner. Kurt has come in and shown a lot of poise in helping Eli develop and understand the offense. However, both are learning the offense so this is going to be interesting. After the initial draft fiasco and appearance of being spoiled Eli has performed well in his first two preseason games. This is a rookie card and will no doubt sell out. Most people will get one or two of these cards. Look for them to sell well on the secondary market as well. I would have to rate this card the number one card of the 2004 set. It carries such a low PR and great price it is hard to resist. STRONG BUY!

J.P. Losman (2,500 @ $5.50)J.P. Losman 2004 eTopps

J.P. Losman was a huge pick for the Bills. Right now he is sitting behind Travis Brown and Bledsoe as the Bills number three signal caller. He has tremendous arm strength. Don't expect him to get off the bench this year (barring any injuries) -- but watch for him in the future. This is a card with a decent price and print run. Don't expect him to see many snaps so the performance bonus is out. However, this being his rookie year and first eTopps card, I would imagine it selling out and simmering around the $4 - $5 price range on the secondary market. WEAK BUY.

Julius Jones (1,750 @ $5.50)Julius Jones 2004 eTopps

This rookie out of Notre Dame has had a huge preseason and really stood out in the Cowboys camp. He has had 113 yards on 22 carries thus far in the preseason. Parcells is a huge fan of this young player's work ethic and plans to use him in their offense. With the aging wonder, Eddie George, as the other RB, Parcells has lots of options and depth at running back. His performance bonus seems a bit of a stretch for a rookie. However, this card will be attractive to many because of the sub-2,000 print run. The price might be a tad high as people question it until he breaks out of George's shadow and becomes the #1 back in Dallas. But, being a a rookie, it is hard to pass on this card, especially with his strong performance thus far. BUY.

Roy Williams (2,500 @ $5.50)Roy Williams 2004 eTopps

Roy Williams is our fourth rookie this week and another attractive one. However, I would rank him behind Eli and Julius this week. He has been playing and adapting well in practice but still has yet to catch a pass in a preseason game. He will no doubt recover and continue to compete with Tai Streets for the #3 WR position. As a big, tall rookie on an improving team, I expect him to catch on sooner than later and be a big factor. When you add it up Detroit has one of the best teams personnel-wise. Charlie Rodgers will no doubt help this young rookie excel in the league. Look for this card to sell out as well and trade around the $4 mark on the secondary market. Don't buy this card if you want reward points. BUY.

New York Jets Team Card (2,500 @ $6.50)New York Jets 2004 eTopps

If the Jets win 4.5 games or more during the first weeks of the season you receive 2 points. If they win 8.5 games for the season you get another two points. Then if they make it to the playoffs you get two more; two more if they go to the Super Bowl; and then 2 more points for winning it. Marvin is one of the best coaches in the NFL but has had a hard time putting up winning teams. He has a great QB but they still have a lot to prove before people will take them seriously. I expect an 8-8 season with no playoffs for the Jets. DON'T BUY.

Cleveland Browns Team Card (2,500 @ $6.50)Cleveland Browns 2004 eTopps

If the Browns win 2.5 games or more during the first weeks of the season you receive 2 points. If they win 7.5 games for the season you get another two points. Then if they make it to the playoffs you get two more; two more if they go to the Super Bowl; and then 2 more points for winning it. Can they get any worse? I don't know but Carmen Policy seems to be trying to do that with the Browns. The Browns are going to have a hard time winning three games all season, no matter how good Garcia is. Winslow can only do so much and you can expect Butch Davis to be on the hot seat soon. DON'T BUY!

Carolina Panthers Team Card (2,500 @ $6.50)Carolina Panthers 2004 eTopps

If the Panthers win 4.5 games or more during the first weeks of the season you receive 2 points. If they win 9.5 games for the season you get another two points. Then if they make it to the playoffs you get two more; two more if they go to the Super Bowl; and then 2 more points for winning it. The Panthers have a definite shot at making it back to the playoffs and securing another bid for the Championship game; however their division is going to be fighting them hard. The Eagles, Seahawks, Packers, and Rams all figure in trying to take the Panthers place in the Super Bowl. However, this card is still a good buy as 9.5 games for a past Super Bowl team is a sure thing, or is it now? BUY.

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