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The anticipated final series of baseball classics also premieres this week with eTopps adjusting to the market and lowering the IPO price to $9.50 and the print run maximum to 1,200. The experience of the 2003 series shows this to be a wise move by eTopps. The 1,200 print run gives the set an appearance of scarcity, especially compared to the relatively high print runs of 2004 baseball. In reality, though, only three of the 2003 baseball classics had more than 1,200 cards issued. The $9.50 price is the highest IPO price since 2003 basketball sensations Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony, but reduces the series price to $190 compared to $250 for the first two 20-card series. This price will give some, but not all, cards a chance to hold their IPO price. Reviewing the five 2003 baseball classic cards that sold between 1,128 and 1,281 cards (George Brett, Josh Gibson, Lou Brock, Johnny Bench, and Yogi Berra) may be insightful for the likely performance of the 2004 classics. These five 2003 cards have recent 7-day average prices range from $6.74 to $14.76, and three of the five have recent 7-day averages within a dollar of $9.50. This seems like a likely range in prices for the 2004 cards, too, with a few cards rising or falling below IPO and most hovering near $9.50.
Let me admit my bias before your read further-baseball classics are my favorite eTopps series, and the reason I joined eTopps in 2002. I will be working to complete my baseball classics set with these final 20. But my excitement of finishing the set is tempered by my increased budget consciousness due to recently purchasing a new house, making eTopps a luxury to be budgeted more wisely. I will buy some from IPO, but will also be using CardTarget Market and eTopps' trading post to complete my set. Remember, my recommendations below are just my thoughts, but other eTopps observers are both more optimistic and more pessimistic about the future of these cards.
While the name Cy Young is omnipresent among baseball fans because of his name gracing the annual best pitcher award, Cy Young's career statistics at the turn of the nineteenth and twentieth century would still set him alone among pitchers. While current fans look in awe at Roger Clemens' 320 career victories, Clemens (a 6-time Cy Young award winner) is less than two-thirds the way to Cy Young's 511 career victories. Randy Johnson (a five-time Cy Young award winner) is well deserving of respect for his perfect game this year, but Cy Young pitched the first perfect game in American League history in 1904. I remember Jack Morris's impressive 10-inning victory in the 1991 World Series, but Cy Young pitched 15 innings in a game in 1904, including no hits until the seventh inning to extend his consecutive inning hitless streak to 24.3 innings. While Cy Young deserves to have a price closer to Walter Johnson (with a 7-day average of $12.03), the higher print run is likely to lead it closer to that of Christy Matthewson ($8.15). I recommend BUY this card at IPO.
Orlando Cepeda is a hall-of-fame player best known for his nine seasons with the San Francisco Giants during the 1950s and 1960s. The first baseman was an eleven-time all-star, and finished his career with 2,351 hits and 379 home runs. While I believe any hall-of-famer is deserving of a classics card, Cepeda will fall under the shadow of some of the legends in this series. I expect that his card will be a soft sellout (along with all of the first week's IPOs) but fall below IPO in comparison to more significant legends and more recent fan favorites. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.
The "Wizard of Oz" is perhaps as well remembered for his back flips as he ran onto the field as his defensive prowess at shortstop for the Cardinals. Elected to the hall of fame in 2002, Smith had 19 major league seasons and set records for double plays and assists by shortstops. While known for his defense, he also had respectable career offensive stats with 2,460 hits and 500 stolen bases (but only one more home run in his career (28) than Jim Thome has so far in 2004). Smith retired only in 1996, so continues to have strong fan support. Nonetheless, absent major accumulation by one or a few diehard fans, I would expect Smith to dip below IPO in the long term. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO, but watch the secondary market to avoid paying an inflated price if major accumulation should develop.
Best known for his time anchoring the Phillies' pitching rotation in the 1950s as part of the "Whiz Kids," Roberts finished his career with 286 victories. He won at least 20 games each year from 1950 through 1955 for the Phillies, including 28 wins in 1952. Perhaps most impressively, as noted on his hall-of-fame plaque, Roberts did not miss a single start in the decade of the 1950s. I praise this set for raising Roberts' profile among younger baseball fans who may have overlooked him, but nonetheless do not expect him to hold the $9.50 IPO price. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.
The best classic buy is Cy Young -- who else among this week's IPOs will be remembered fondly in baseball history nearly 100 years after completing his career?
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