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IPO InsightCasey, Durazo, Furcal,
D. Lee, J. Reyes, Sosa

By Sean Cook
(e-mail)


June 29, 2004


Since April 28th of this year, the eTopps market has dropped $275. Now you might look at this and say this not a big thing. However, then add to the fire the fact that during the Topps conference call eTopps was treated like a stepchild and it looks as if it is headed in the wrong direction. I am not saying we need to save the program but it would not hurt if we went to the National and won as many fans as possible over and brought them on board. A surge in customers would reduce our current slide and reverse the trends. Of course, that is just one way to avoid the pitfalls that we are currently going through.

On to this week’s IPOs:

Derrek Lee (2,500 @ $4.50)Derrek Lee 2004 eTopps

This is the first eTopps card for this hard-hitting first baseman. Derrek came over from the World Series Champs last year to fill a void at first base -- one that had been there since Mark Grace left. Last year he won his first gold glove as a first baseman. What a great pickup for the Cubs! Derrek is off to a good start again with 46 RBI’s and batting over .300. It looks as if this sure-handed and solid-hitting first baseman has found a home in Chi-town. He is well on his way to making his performance bonus. BUY!

Erubiel Durazo (2,500 @ $4.50)Erubiel Durazo 2004 eTopps

Another first for eTopps is Erubiel Durazo. Erubiel played for the Diamondbacks up until 2002 when he came to the A’s, one of Beane’s big moves. Durazo got off to a slow start last year but is more than making up for it this year. Last year he was hampered by injuries most of the year and ended up hitting a dismal .259. This year he is hitting over .300 and is on the way to breaking most of his career-high marks. In his last 10 games he has hit .357 and is batting over .300 in every aspect (vs. lefty or righty, on turf, grass, night games, day games, and home vs. road). He is really beginning to live up to his potential as a good power hitter with an excellent eye. All he needs is one more stolen base and he is a lock for the performance bonus. BUY!

Jose Reyes (2,500 @ $4.50)Jose Reyes 2004 eTopps

Jose might as well have stayed on the DL. What has he gone now -- about 42 straight innings without an injury? Is this a record for him? Anyway, this card does have some allure with the small PR and price; but the player brings no appeal with him. He was a heralded rookie who has now been exposed as a player who breaks down too easily, similar to J.D. Drew. This card does not do it for me, nor should it be worth anything to you (unless you like Reyes for some unknown reason). You are better off picking this card up on the secondary market. Stick with his 2003 5K print run card for now. DON’T BUY!

Rafael Furcal (2,500 @ $4.50)Rafael Furcal 2004 eTopps

Reyes was supposed to be like Furcal, or even the best prospect since Strawberry, however it has not materialized. Rafael, on the other hand, is in a league of his own right now and when his little buddy Giles returns at second base, he will be even better off. Don’t pick up Furcal if you are looking for a sure thing in the bonus points arena. He will most likely not raise his batting average to the required .278. However, this is a unique card since the last Furcal came out in 2001 and has a print run of 646. So a lot of people are going to be interested in picking one of these up. I don’t see anything wrong with that, seeing as how he is a great shortstop. BUY.

Sammy Sosa (3,750 @ $5.25)Sammy Sosa 2004 eTopps

Back problems have limited Sammy significantly this year. He started having back spasms after a sneeze early in the year. Now I am not sure about throwing your back out from a sneeze, but who knows? Sammy is one of the top 10-15 players right now and is going to be in the Hall of Fame someday. Thus for me to even try and convince you to not buy this card is crazy. Like Bonds, most of his cards carry their value well. By the way, did you know Sammy played for the Texas Rangers and, in 89 at-bats, only had one home run? Anyways, BUY!

Sean Casey (2,500 @ $5.25)Sean Casey 2004 eTopps

Sean Casey is definitely having a good year thanks to all the supplements he is taking... Have you looked at him and noticed how much he has changed -- even since last year? He has muscles in his ears now. His best year was 1999, shortly after coming over from the Indians. Since then he has been hot and cold -- but this year is hot. He is a middle-level player that is too streaky for my taste and I am sure that of a lot more fans. If he, Dunn and some others were more consistent, the Reds might have been a better team the last couple years. Anyways, pick this card up on the secondary market! DON’T BUY!

In closing, remember that these picks are done with research and common sense. Do not trust my opinion. As always, simply use this as a tool or guide to assist in developing your own buying strategy.

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