Before turning to this week’s eTopps IPOs, let me share my weekend baseball experience. My son and I had tickets to Friday’s game for the San Francisco Giants’ first-ever visit to Baltimore, but unfortunately a steady drizzle resulted in the game being suspended until Saturday night after a regularly scheduled afternoon game. As true baseball fans, we bought standing room only tickets to stand above the opponents’ bullpen in dead centerfield for the first part of the day-night doubleheader, and to my surprise enjoyed the perspective (actually better than upper deck outfield seats, though my feet may not endure another four-hour game standing) and an exciting 11-inning game. The game was highlighted not only by Barry Bonds’ 675th career home run but Rafael Palmeiro’s 536th and 537th home runs to pass Mickey Mantle on the all-time list. Only twice before had two players with at least 500 home runs hit home runs in the same game. An hour and a half later, we got to repeat the experience, though this time with seats (thankfully) high above home plate, and saw another good, 12-inning game (with Orioles’ fans booing the home team for four (!) intentional walks to Bonds). A memorable weekend of baseball for me as I likely will not again get to enjoy 23 innings of major league baseball with my son on such a beautiful day.

The games even had two trivial eTopps connections for me. First, my twelve-year-old son, having forgotten his baseball cap, grudgingly agreed to wear my eTopps’ cap during the first game. Second, I was pleased to see Tim Raines, Jr., the bane of many an eTopps’ collection with his overproduced 2002 card but a personal favorite from his local minor league days, get his first start in 2004 and a standup double for the Orioles.

On to this week’s IPOs:

Brian Giles (2,500 @ $4.50)

While this is Giles first year with the Padres, it is his fourth eTopps card. The new team and the desire to include more than one Padres player may have led eTopps to include a fourth Giles card, but this is the least attractive of the three fourth-year cards in this week’s IPOs. Giles has sold relatively few cards in each of the prior sets: only 400 in 2001; 2,000 in 2002; and 1,500 in 2003. Perhaps some will order looking for this week’s short print, but overall this is not an attractive card when the 2003 card has a recent eTopps price of only $3.18. Giles is below the performance bonus levels for batting average and on-base percentage, making his performance bonus potential and fantasy value relatively low. I recommend DO NOT BUY this card at IPO.

Ichiro Suzuki (3,750 @ $4.50)

Twenty-five thousand. That is the approximate number of Ichiro cards that will be in print across the four eTopps baseball sets once the 2004 card is issued. While Ichiro is undoubtedly an all-star and his emergence in 2001 as the rookie-of-the-year coincided with eTopps’ first baseball set, it is hard to argue that there should be more Ichiro eTopps cards than that of any other player. (Please correct me if I am wrong on this, since I cannot check my facts with CardTarget’s server problems. Come back soon, Mike and Jason!) While the 2004 card will likely be the shortest printed of Ichiro’s four eTopps cards, I find it hard to expect that it will hold IPO price in the long run. The performance bonus levels are very reasonable, though he is slightly below pace for homeruns and RBIs at the time of my writing. A quick home run or two and this card may see a spike as the season matures and people start hunting performance bonus categories. If you want to take a shot on performance bonuses, this card may be this week’s best bet, but in the long run it is unlikely to hold IPO price. Thus, I recommend DO NOT BUY this card at IPO.

Joe Mauer (5,000 @ $6.50)

The Twins’ rookie catcher was expected to burst onto the major leagues in 2004, but his arrival was delayed by a knee injury that landed him on the disabled list through the first third of the season. In the first 12 games since his return in early June, however, he has demonstrated strong offensive potential with a .323 batting average and two homeruns. Etopps set modest, achievable performance bonus thresholds for Mauer, perhaps because of his injury-delayed start, thought the 1 stolen base is questionable (he had 7 stolen bases in the lower minor leagues in two seasons). Despite the mediocre performance of some of the other hopefuls in this year’s rookie class (such as Kaz Matsui), Mauer is arguably the most promising rookie of 2004. In fact, last year Baseball America named him minor league player of the year. Despite the high maximum print run, I recommend that you BUY this card at IPO.

Johnny Estrada (3,750 @ $4.50)

My local Orioles’ gain in signing Javy Lopez during the off-season was the Atlanta Braves’ loss. However, this opened the catching position for Johnny Estrada, who had come to the Braves from the Phillies in a 2002 trade but spent most of 2003 in AAA minor leagues. So far in 2004, he has even exceeded Lopez’s offensive stats for batting average and on base percentage, but he lacks Lopez’s power. His performance bonus thresholds seem reasonable in most categories, but the proverbial single stolen base likely will keep him from earning the performance bonus point (he has never stolen a base in the major leagues, and only 3 over 7 minor league seasons). This is Estrada’s first eTopps card. However, other catchers will have better stats for fantasy games, and Mauer is a better long-term prospect. Thus, I recommend DO NOT BUY this card at IPO.

Laynce Nix (3,750 @ $4.50)

Laynce Nix is in his first full season as the Rangers’ centerfielder, showing moderate power with 9 home runs to date. ETopps set reasonable performance bonus levels for him, as he is currently on pace in three categories, but may fall short in on-base percentage. He recently was put on the 15-day disabled list with a shoulder injury, which may make it harder for him to meet performance thresholds. While the price is modest for a first time eTopps card of a young player, I recommend DO NOT BUY this card at IPO.

Nomar Garciaparra (3,750 @ $4.50)

After the ignominy Garciaparra faced in the offseason as Red Sox deemed him as expendable in their unsuccessful courting of Alex Rodriguez and then the disappointment of spending the beginning of the season on the disabled list, Garciaparra may need to reestablish his all-star status as one of the game’s top shortstops. This is Garciaparra’s fourth eTopps card, with the 2003 card likely being the closest benchmark for the 2004 card’s likely future. The 2003 card had 2,177 issued, and has a recent eTopps price of $3.84. I recommend DO NOT BUY this card at IPO.

In closing, I think this week’s best buy (and my only buy recommendation) is Joe Mauer. Short print gamblers may want to check out Brian Giles while performance bonus gamblers may want to check out Ichiro, but neither are as safe of bets as Smarty Jones was and you know how that turned out…. But these are just my recommendations and perspectives; identify your only collection goals and investment strategies to maximize your enjoyment of eTopps!