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eTopps made several dramatic changes for its 2004 baseball set. While the redesigned card, the lower average IPO price, and the introduction of team cards are all noteworthy, the most anticipated and fundamental change has been the introduction of frequent fantasy games. Many participants had suggested the eTopps needed to add a fantasy game component to attract new participants and to increase interest in third and fourth year cards of major stars. While it may be premature to assess whether the added fantasy component has succeeded in these goals, I was curious to see whether to date the prices for the most popular fantasy players have increased faster than the overall eTopps trend.
To try to isolate whether there was a larger price increase for key fantasy players, I examined price trends for the 2003 eTopps cards of the top ranked fantasy players at each position (8 field positions, starting pitcher, and closing pitcher) as ranked in the preseason ratings by ESPN, Sports Illustrated, and Sporting News. Combining all three rankings, I ended up with 18 2003 eTopps cards that would likely be among the most sought after for fantasy games. These players included Todd Helton and Jim Thome at first base; Alfonso Soriano at second base; Scott Rolen at third base; Alex Rodriguez and Nomar Garciaparra at shortstop (note that these were preseason rankings before A-Rod’s conversion to third base); Albert Pujols, Vladimir Guerrero, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, and Manny Ramirez in the outfield; Jorge Posada and Ivan Rodriguez as catchers; Curt Schilling, Roy Halladay, and Pedro Martinez as starting pitchers; and Eric Gagne as closer. On April 26 at the 7-day average, buying one of each of the 18 top-ranked fantasy players’ 2003 cards would have cost $105.39. This represented a 41 percent increase since January 1. In contrast, the entire 2003 set increased in price by about 35 percent from January 1 to April 26.
Thus, it seems that in the first month of fantasy games in eTopps, the fantasy stars have increased modestly faster than the prices for eTopps overall--about 6 percent faster for these 18 fantasy standouts. This may understate the price effect of fantasy games since some of the overall price increase may also be attributed to the renewed interest in eTopps cards generated by eTopps, and the varying fantasy games may also put a premium on players other than the 2003 cards of those ranked highly by the three media reports. Nonetheless, if this differential holds, eTopps may have at least partially succeeded in aligning prices somewhat closer to on-field performance and somewhat less based on print runs.
On to this week’s IPOs:
2004 represents Ken Griffey, Jr.’s fourth eTopps card, which critics would say nearly equals the number of games he has played in the last four seasons. Hit by multiple injuries since the one-time megastar joined the Reds, Griffey has played fewer games each season, from 111 in 2001 to 70 in 2002 and 53 in 2003. While his injuries and disappointing performance have diminished his stature among stars, all but his fiercest critics must hope that he can return to health and high caliber performance in 2004. If he does, he should hit his 500th home run midseason and may make a run at his eTopps performance bonus levels, but his injuries have kept him well below these levels each of the last three years. I would anticipate that Griffey’s 2004 eTopps card would sell similar or more than the 1,238 in 2003, which has a recent 7-day average of $10.59. Even the overproduced 2002 Griffey card, with 4,569 issued, has a recent 7-day average of $4.72, close to the IPO price. This would suggest that Griffey’s 2004 card could hold close to the IPO price if the print run remains does not greatly exceed 2,000, and it could rise slightly as he nears 500 home runs and if he has a comeback year. However, there are not likely to be large gains here, so this card earns a DO NOT BUY recommendation.
The Oakland A’s rookie steps into large shoes in replacing Miguel Tejada at shortstop, but the scouts indicate that he has the talent to be one of this year’s top rookies. Crosby was name AAA rookie-of-the-year for the Pacific Coast League, and played a handful of games for the A’s in 2003. His early season batting average of 0.196 indicates that he still is adjusting to major league pitching, but he has shown some power with 2 home runs in 14 games. ETopps set modest performance bonus levels for Crosby as his minor league career shows some power and base-stealing speed. If Crosby can quickly make the adjustment to the majors, he could make these performance bonus targets and gain votes for rookie-of-the year, but the question remains whether the 24-year-old is ready to assume be a starting player in his first season. I recommend BUYING this card at IPO.
The Marlins’ center fielder is a deserving candidate for his first eTopps card. Pierre has emerged as a premiere leadoff hitter, with little power but a good batting average (.305 in 2003) and a top base stealer (65 steals in 2003). eTopps set very reasonable performance bonus thresholds that he would have met or been very close to meeting in each of the last 3 years. The toughest threshold may be hitting a single home run as he has had only four home runs over the last three years combined. As a first year card of a potential All-Star level player with good performance bonus potential and increasing visibility with the defending World Champions, I recommend BUYING this card at IPO.
Brandon Webb has tremendous pressure in his sophomore year to build upon a solid rookie season (10 wins, 9 losses, 2.84 ERA in 2003) as he moves up in the Diamondbacks’ rotation to fill in for the loss of Curt Schilling. Webb’s strength is a sinking fastball, but he can get into trouble if he does not have command with of this pitch. The toughest eTopps performance bonus threshold will likely be for ERA, with Webb having to reduce his 2003 ERA notably to 2.55. Webb’s 2003 rookie eTopps card sold out at 3,000 cards and has a recent 7-day average of about $6.25. Without the rookie stature and a print run likely at least two-thirds of the 2003 card, I see little potential for this card to grow above the IPO price. Thus, I recommend NOT BUYING this card at IPO.
The Yankees’ catcher, in his tenth major league season, has started 2004 by continuing his career-best offensive stats from last year. After hitting a personal best 30 home runs in 2003, he has shown even more power with 7 homers in the first 18 games of 2004. With key losses to the Yankees’ pitching Staff, Posada will have to coax more out of the pitching Staff if the Yankees hope to continue their dominance over the Red Sox in the American League East in recent years. Posada, along with Ivan Rodriguez and Javy Lopez, will be a key card for many fantasy games requiring catchers. If he matches his offensive output from 2003 he will barely make his performance bonus thresholds, but if he slips at all he will fall short particularly in home runs, RBIs, and stolen bases. Posada’s other eTopps card, the 2003 with 2,171 issued, has a recent 7-day IPO average of $6.59. Other than the Yankee attraction, though, I am not sure why a second eTopps card of Posada is commanding a higher IPO price and the same high maximum print run of the first card of Javy Lopez. I think the 2004 Lopez and the 2003 Posada are better buys, so I would NOT BUY this card at IPO.
The Cardinals would have to improve on their 85-77 record in 2003 to achieve the 90 win target eTopps set for season performance bonus points, and their 10-9 start in 2004 puts them on a current pace to duplicate their 85 wins in 2003. In May, the Cardinals would need to win 16 games, a tough order with 28 total games including 9 against the division leaders Cubs and Marlins. I recommend that every eTopps participant purchase their own favorite teams to hold in their collection and play the team bonus game, but for others I suggest DO NOT BUY this card at IPO.
The Giants are off to a slow start in 2004, with an 8 and 12 record, and are unlikely to dominate the National League West as they did in 2003. The 87 season win threshold eTopps set for the Giants to earn a bonus point seems modest after their 100 wins in 2003, and a preseason simulation for ESPN by Diamond Mind projected 87 wins for the Giants. But through the first 20 games they are only on a pace for 65 wins, so will need to get back on track quickly. The May threshold for a bonus is 14 wins in 27 games, including the season’s longest road trip for the Giants to face the Expos in Puerto Rico. While most anticipate that the team cards will drop in value post season without the support of potential bonus points, the Giants card in particular has limited long-term collector value since it lacks a picture of Barry Bonds, likely due to his nonparticipation in the players’ union in 2004. Thus, even for diehard Giants fans this card has limited collectible value, so this card gets a DO NOT BUY at IPO recommendation.
The Mariners have had an even more disappointing start to 2004 than the Giants, winning only 6 of their first 19 games. In 2003, the Mariners fought the A’s for the American League West division until late in the season, finishing three games back with a 93 and 69 record, but in 2004 will also have to contend with a stronger Anaheim Angels team in their division. To earn a bonus point, the Mariners would need to win 81 games in 2003 or 13 games in May. It may be reasonable for the Mariners to play 0.500 baseball for May and for the season, but they have to contend with a tough May schedule with 15 of their 27 games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Twins. Prominent Mariners fans in the eTopps community have already claimed they will buy all of the Mariners cards, but for others my recommendation is DO NOT BUY this card at IPO.
In closing, I think this week’s best buy is Juan Pierre. With fewer exciting IPOs issued this week than in the past weeks, though, many will be watching to see if the high print runs during the first four weeks continue. I do not anticipate that print runs drop far enough to produce a short print that will endure for the set, but with the novelty of fantasy games wearing off and no essential IPOs this week the average print runs may start slowly eroding. I believe the coming weeks will help define the 2004 baseball set. Remember, though, I certainly do not have any inside information or anything more than a couple of years of personal collecting experience, so take my recommendations only as one perspective in making your own strategic eTopps purchasing decisions.
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