This week wraps up the 2003 eTopps basketball set. Back at week 1, I wrote “after a doubling in median print runs from 716 in 2001 to 1,500 in 2002, I expect most 2003 basketball print runs to slip below 1,000 -- perhaps 700 to 800 for many cards and a handful near 500.” My forecast was based largely on how the third-year print runs for baseball and football had compared to the first two years of those sets. Overall, the 2003 basketball set has fallen in line. Excluding the final week of IPOs, the median print run has been about 770, and 6 cards have print runs within 50 cards of 500. While eTopps revenues are hurt by the median print run being cut roughly in half from 2002 to 2003 to a level comparable to the 2001 set, this set goes a long way in stabilizing the secondary market and eTopps’ future. The doom and gloom that was dominant in week 1 has been replaced with an optimism grounded in the healthy performance of the 2003 basketball set and rising prices for earlier sets. While there may be some erosion in prices during the offseason there is also the potential for more healthy modest long-term growth rather than the sudden surge and retreat in prices seen in 2002 and 2003.

The final week of IPOs is composed of 6 cards voted in by eTopps participants. All the players in this week’s IPOs are receiving their premier in eTopps, showing that eTopps participants are seeking more diversity in the player selection. I believe that a well-rounded set requires a mix of rookies, superstars, and solid players in between, and the vote-ins being released this week help round out the set in regards to the last category.

Josh Howard (1,000 @ $6.50)

While Josh Howard was near the end of the first round of picks in the 2003 NBA draft (29th), he has moved up the ladder among the NBA rookies this year. The Dallas Mavericks forward from Wake Forest University is one of the few rookies that is a starter for a contending team. He has contributed an average of 8 points per game (seventh among rookies) and 6 rebounds per game. Howard was the top vote getter among eTopps participants in the selection, and I believe that he is deserving. BUY this card at IPO.

Zach Randolph (1,250 @ $5.00)

The Portland Trailblazers’ Zach Randolph, in his third NBA season, was the third highest vote-getter (Carlos Arroyo, the second-highest, was released last week). The Trailblazers’ starting forward has emerged this season with an average of 21.4 points per game and nearly 11 rebounds per game (fifth in the NBA). He has continued to play well despite off-the-court troubles resulting from an arrest in December for driving under the influence of intoxicants, to which he has pleaded “not guilty.” Hopefully this incident does not portend future problems and he can continue his maturation in the NBA. I recommend this card as one to BUY at IPO.

Brad Miller (1,000 @ $4.00)

Brad Miller finished fourth in the vote-in to earn his first eTopps card. The Western Conference all-star reserve from the Sacramento Kings has had to step up his play to compensate for Chris Webber, who has been on the injured list this season. In his first season with Sacramento (his sixth NBA season), he is averaging nearly 15 points per game and nearly 11 rebounds per game. This is another recommended card to BUY at IPO.

Desmond Mason (1,000 @ $4.00)

The final three vote-ins released this week (Mason, Billups, and Cassell) finished fifth through seventh in the voting and were only slightly more than 100 votes apart. Thus, eTopps participants did not show strong favorites among these remaining vote-ins, and eTopps has given them identical 1,000 print run caps and $4.00 IPO prices. Desmond Mason makes his eTopps debut in his fourth NBA season as the Milwaukee Bucks’ “sixth man.” He has averaged nearly 29 minutes per game despite only 11 starts, and contributes a strong average of 13 additional points per game. Notably, Mason also won the slam dunk championship during the 2001 All-Star Weekend. While Mason has become one of the NBA’s strongest sixth men, my recommendation is DON’T BUY at IPO.

Chauncey Billups (1,000 @ $4.00)

The Detroit Pistons’ starting guard Chauncey Billups is another first-time eTopps card. He has a career-high 17.8 average for points per game this year, and is tied for sixth in the NBA for 3-point shots made. He nearly reached his career high of 36 points with 33 points in a game against Memphis in November, and has increased his offensive output above career averages in nearly every category. However, with other players getting more votes from prospective purchasers, and two all-stars and one rookie also available at IPO, I do not see Billups as one of this week’s more attractive prospects. DON’T BUY at IPO.

Sam Cassell (1,000 @ $4.00)

This season is one of firsts for Sam Cassell, even though it is his eleventh NBA season. Playing in his first season with the Minnesota Timberwolves, being named to his first all-star game, and earning his first eTopps card, Cassell so far has a career-high average of 21 points per game. He also ranks fifth in assists per game with an average of 7.7. With such a strong career year topped by his all-star team selection, this card earns a recommendation to BUY at IPO.

In closing, I think this week’s best IPO buy is Josh Howard. Remember, as always these recommendations represent only my perspectives, and each eTopps purchaser needs to formulate his or her own purchasing strategies. Remember to check your total spending for 2003 basketball IPOs so that you can maximize your reward points with this week’s IPO purchases. It is possible that buying just one more $4.00 IPO can put you a notch higher in the $25.00 increments and earn an extra reward point.