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Each week we bring you one writer's perspective on the weekly crop of eTopps IPOs. This week we thought we'd try something new and give you TWO viewpoints on each IPO. Consider what both "VivaLaRaza" and our own John Dicken have to say about each IPO and then you decide whether the card is a good buy!
Dicken says:
The 2003 basketball set is strong in rookies with 30 of the 72 base cards (not including the eight promised vote-in cards) being first-year NBA players. A useful feature of eTopps' numbering of the basketball sets is that the rookie cards are ranked by their draft pick positions. The top three draft picks (Lebron James, Darko Milicic, and Carmelo Anthony) are card numbers 43, 44, and 45, while the lowest draft pick included in the set (Steve Blake, the 38th pick) is card number 72. This week sees three mid-level draft picks (drafted 15th, 16th, and 19th) released at IPO. So far the rookies below the top 10 draft picks have not shown notable increases and have a relatively narrow range in 7-day average prices of $3.29 to $7.40, with seven of fifteen cards below the IPO price. In contrast, the cards of players among the top 10 draft picks range in price from $6.34 to $21.83, with eight of nine released so far being above the IPO price. In future years, some of these lower draft picks may exceed expectations and rise in price, but so far they have not been particularly prominent among the better performers in the 2003 basketball set.
Dicken says:
The Utah Jazz's rookie forward from Serbia/Montenegro, Pavlovic was the 19th pick in the NBA draft. He is averaging nearly 15 minutes per game, mostly coming off the bench with some spot starts, and averages over 5 points per game and 2 rebounds per game. Despite strong talent as one of the top players from Serbia/Montenegro, I do not anticipate Pavlovic breaking out of the group of mid-level rookies and the $6.50 IPO price is high for this group. Thus, I suggest that you DO NOT BUY this card at IPO.
VivaLaRaza says:
This guy looks to be a pretty good prospect. He has a few key things going for him that not many rookies, let alone veterans, have: a great defensive threat, good rebounder and he shoots over 80% from the free throw line. Matt Harpring starts over him but when he gets the starting nod in the future he will be one heck of a player. I say BUY.
Dicken says:
Larry Hughes is in his sixth NBA season and is the second year with his third team, the Washington Wizards. He seems to have found a good fit as he is off to the best start of his career. Thus far, he is averaging about 19 points per game, about 50 percent higher than his career average. With teammates Gilbert Arenas and Jerry Stackhouse having missed most of the season for the Wizards due to injuries, Hughes has had a more prominent role for the Wizards. His playing time may fall as Arena and Stackhouse return after the all-star break, and thus his minutes and average points may return closer to his career averages. This is Hughes first eTopps card. While it will not sellout even with a modest 1,000 cap and Hughes may not generate the excitement of some of the rookie cards, I believe that a $5.00 IPO price is reasonable for a likely one-time eTopps card. BUY this card at IPO.
VivaLaRaza says:
He has finally developed into a semi-star this year. He is averaging almost 19 points, 1.4 steals and almost 5 rebounds a game. The only thing he needs to work on is finding the open guy; but overall hes improved a ton this year. Although he has turned into a semi-star this year he is still a Wizard and no one cares about Wizard players since Jordan left. Wait until they hit eBay if you want this one. DON'T BUY.
Dicken says:
Just returning from a nearly two month stay on the injured list due to a knee injury, Reece Gaines is a point-guard joining the Orlando Magic from the Louisville Cardinals. The 15th pick in the 2003 draft, Gaines has had just 15 NBA games under his belt, and has made few points. But his Louisville career shows scoring potential, finishing fourth all-time in Louisville's history in scoring. While Gaines may not have the same level of potential at point guard as T. J. Ford, he could grow with more experience. Given his limited playing time and missed time due to injury, Gaines may have a lower print run than some comparable lower first-round rookies in 2003. While I expect his card to start near or even slightly below the IPO price, it could rise as Gaines resumes playing following his injury and shows more of his potential. The $4.00 IPO price makes this a safer bet than the other rookies this week, so BUY this card at IPO.
VivaLaRaza says:
This is a tough one to call because he has missed 26 games with patilla tendinitis in his right knee so we really don't know what this guy can do yet. He has a total of nine points and 14 assists in 14 games this season. He's a 6'6" PG and that type of size in that position doesn't come along everyday. Although this is only $4 I still don't think this is a very good buy because of the fact we have no idea what this young man can do in this league. DON'T BUY.
Dicken says:
Shaq earns his third eTopps card. A seven-time all-star, Shaq has a career-low to date average of 20.0 points per game. This is still respectable, but about 7 points per game lower than his career average. The addition of new scoring options in Karl Malone and Gary Payton have reduced O'Neal's scoring chances, and his field-goal percentage tops the NBA at over 55 percent. O'Neal's 2001 and 2002 eTopps cards both issued about 2,270 cards, with his 2001 having a recent 7-day average of about $9.50 and his 2002 about $4.50. While many criticize third-year cards, no set would completely represent basketball without including Shaq as one of the most prominent NBA stars. The question is whether this is one of the third-year cards whose lower print run will see a rise above the IPO price, as have Chris Webber's and Tim Duncan's cards, or slip below the IPO price, like Jason Kidd's and teammate Kobe Bryant's cards. While Shaq's popularity may mean that his print run will approach the 1,000 maximum, that remains less than half of either of his earlier issues, and the Lakers' prominence and Shaq's popularity makes this a likely good bet to remain close to IPO price. Thus, this may compete with the 2001 card as the Shaq eTopps card to own. BUY this card at IPO.
VivaLaRaza says:
I don't really think I need to explain this guy's career accomplishments because you already know them. His last year's card is going for $4.38 (7-day average) with a 2,273 PR. Although this year's is only a 1,500 PR (which will probably come close to a sell-out), I really don't think this can stay at IPO throughout this year. Buy this for $5.50 down the road. DON'T BUY.
Dicken says:
Troy Bell was the 16th pick in the 2003 NBA draft. The Boston College guard has played only two games for the Memphis Grizzlies, being yet another of this week's IPOs who has been injured much of the season. While he has not been able to demonstrate his abilities in the NBA yet, his scouting record indicates that he brings speed and good defense, but needs to better avoid turnovers and better choose his shots. The print run may fall to low levels, but at $6.50 I do not think this is a good buy. DON'T BUY this card at IPO..
VivaLaRaza says:
Here's another rookie that we haven't gotten a good look at. He's only played 2 games the whole year and notched 5 points, 2 rebounds and 1 assist. The only thing I know about this guy is that he's very athletic, can play PG or SG and that he can shoot the 3. But with Williams and Miller at the two gaurd spots I doubt he ever will get much playing time when he comes back and for years to come. DON'T BUY.
Dicken says:
No disrespect to Troy Hudson, but it is surprising that Topps selected him for an eTopps card. This is his seventh NBA season, largely playing off the bench as a guard. He has twice been on the injured list with an ankle injury, and is slowing increasing his minutes as he returns to playing form. While I like the idea of journeyman players getting the opportunity to get eTopps cards to increase the diversity of these sets, I do not expect this card to perform well even if it has a low print run. DON'T BUY this card at IPO.
VivaLaRaza says:
I just want to know why eTopps gave this guy a card. The case they will be putting this junk in will be worth more than the card its protecting. TRASH. DON'T BUY.
Dicken says:
In closing, I think this week's best IPO buy is Shaquille O'Neal, despite being a third-year card, followed by Larry Hughes. Others may disagree and argue that I am not giving rookies their due respect, but the performance of many of the cards for rookies below the top 10 draft picks has been short of spectacular so I only recommend the $4.00 rookie this week.
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