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IPO InsightK. Collins, M. Faulk, Henry,
Ragone, Rattay, C. Rogers, Moe Williams

By Sean Cook (e-mail)


How did the idea of short prints come about? What actually drives the thought process where people are more concerned with a short print than the player's performance? First off, SP's are a rarity... so people are naturally drawn to them. However, in eTopps-land they have become more of a frequent occurrence than a rarity. So it really bewilders me when someone on the boards is disgusted so many people ordered so many of one card to make it no longer an SP candidate. I thought the whole idea was to buy the players you wanted and let the chips fall where they may. If a player is not ordered across the board then it naturally becomes the SP. I think, in some senses, we have forgotten how inflated the '02 set was and how lucky we are right now. We may never, ever, see PR's in the hundreds like we are in 2003. If eTopps has its way, with advertising bringing in new customers, then our PR's will realistically be more like what we see with baseball, 2500 to 5000. Now that will make all these older cards (2000/01/03 sets) worth a lot more. The problem is we are not focused on long term growth around here. The shortsighted eTopps customer is fixated on the 50 meter target, as we say in the Army. There is no fix for the 50m target... it is all reaction. eTopps customers need to let the course build and develop for the 300m target.

eTopps is well on the way and is improving itself everyday. For instance, besides the low PR's, eTopps and their ability to release cards that IPO'd the week prior on a Monday is outstanding. This was unheard of several months ago. We would sometimes wait until Tuesday, Wednesday or even Thursday before cards were released. This is another good news story from the guys at eTopps getting the job done. This clearly shows that we are progressing to a more focused attempt to ensure customer satisfaction. Now we just need the word to spread among us eToppers. Now let's check out our picks for the week. As always, do not trust my advice but use it as a tool along with other tools to invest smarter. Do your homework and invest wisely.

Charles Rogers (2,500 @ $6.50)Charles Rogers 2003 eTopps

What Charles did for college football last year, Larry Fitzgerald is doing this year. He took Michigan St. to another level every time he touched the ball last year. In five games with the Lions this year, Charles has caught 22 passes for 243 yards. He is not making the impact everyone had anticipated out of this number one pick by the Lions in the 2003 draft. However, give this young star and his pal Joey Harrington time to tune into the Mucci offensive scheme and things will soon be on fire in Motown. This is a young stud destined for future success. Probably the card most sought after by collectors who are looking for young stars. This is a definite sellout and a card with unlimited potential. This card is a MUST BUY!

Dave Ragone (1,500 @ $4.00)Dave Ragone 2003 eTopps

I would wait and see if this young star out of the University of Louisville sees his career ever get off the ground. Right now I see him as a longshot when it comes to getting any significant playing time with the Texans. Carr and Banks are running the team as Capers wants and achieving success for this young team. Dave's best bet is to study and learn as much as possible. He has not seen any playing time this year and most likely will not see any. This is a rookie card that should sell about 1,000 cards. I am buying this card out of interest (well, morbid interest) as I like the low price tag. But it will likely fall considerably lower on eBay so wait until eBay. DON'T BUY this card.

Kerry Collins (1,000 @ $6.50)Kerry Collins 2003 eTopps

Kerry was a star for the now-troubled Joe Paterno at Penn St. before being drafted by the Carolina Panthers. From the Panthers he went to New Orleans for a season before landing with the New York Giants. Kerry was an extremely immature QB and took longer to come into his own than others. However, he burst onto the scene with the Giants and eventually took them to a Super Bowl, where the Ravens enjoyed his INT's. Kerry is very gifted with an extremely strong arm. He also possesses a lot of strength in the pocket. He can hold his position and take a hit. He can also launch the long ball. He happens to be surrounded by a great RB and several good WR's and one TE that make Kerry look better than he really is. Kerry is not Hall-of-Fame material but is capable of being a Gannon-type QB who gets better with time and age. An interesting Kerry Collins stat, he has thrown as many INT's in his career as TD's (130-130). This is his second eTopps card; his '01 card had a PR of 355 and is currently selling for $20 on the secondary market. DON'T BUY this card.

Marshall Faulk (1,500 @ $6.50)Marshall Faulk 2003 eTopps

Marshall is having a difficult year due to nagging injuries. However, he is still an impact player with the Rams and, when in the backfield, he adds a dimension to the game that few other players do. His ability to run the ball between tackles and take a swing pass upfield for 10-20 yards is outstanding. In his tenth year in the NFL, Marshall has only appeared in four games this year. Before last year's 900-yard performance Marshall had rushed for 1,300 yards 4 straight years. Marshall has rushed for over 1,000 yards in 7 of his 10 seasons. This is neither his first eTopps card, nor will it be his last I am sure. Marshall has appeared in every eTopps set so far, from 2000 to 2003. I am not going to cover each card but I think you get the point. Marshall is a great back and deserves a lot of recognition but I think this card is a flop. At least the price tag could have been $4. DON'T BUY this card.

Moe Williams (1,500 @ $4.00)Moe Williams 2003 eTopps

This 8-year pro is no mystery to Minnesota, having played with them for five years before a one-year stint with Baltimore. This year he is the featured back for the Vikings and has responded well. In 9 games he has already rushed for over 600 yards and caught over 30 passes for 356 yards. This Kentucky graduate is making a huge splash in his eighth year in the NFL. I think it is rare that something like this happens and it is great for him that he does it. He does not seem like a long-term fix (Minnesota will most likely draft a RB in '04). He does fill a void immediately and provide invaluable offense to a pass-happy team. This will probably be his only card and will no doubt be a rare one out there. I like the price on this card and the fact Moe is having a great year. BUY THIS CARD.

Tim Rattay (1,500 @ $6.50)Tim Rattay 2003 eTopps

This four-year veteran out of Louisiana Tech has made his mark on this 2003 49ers team. In their last game, Tim played an instrumental role in the defeat of the St. Louis Rams. He led the 49ers to a 30-10 win over the Rams while going 19-for-29 and 236 yards passing. He also threw for 3 TD's with only one INT. His QB rating this year is 104.2 and for the Rams game it was a 110.7. Tim has waited quietly for four years and has developed into an extremely competent QB. He no doubt will make a great QB on this team or another in the league. This is his first eTopps card and no doubt will not be his last. This IPO should sell about 900 cards. BUY THIS CARD!

Travis Henry (1,000 @ $6.50)Travis Henry 2003 eTopps

This third-year pro out of the University of Tennessee has made quite an impact in the league. In his rookie year he rushed for 729 yards in the 12 games he started. Buffalo is fortunate to have a plethora of great RB's, including Willis McGahee. Henry just happens to be the best on the team right now and the starting RB. This year he has rushed for over 630 yards in 8 games and is on pace for his second 1,000-yard season. Travis Henry's last card was his 2001 eTopps card, which also happened to be his rookie card. It had a print run of 1,117 and is selling for about $11 right now on the secondary market. You're better off picking this 2003 card up, at a discount, on eBay. I also doubt it will be the SP, selling around 600 cards. DON'T BUY this card.

In closing, I would just like to highlight a card that I think is steal of its set. For this week I am going to address the 2002 football set and the card I think makes it the set it is. In this case I think it is actually three cards, which happen to all be rookie QB's. These cards feature Harrington, Carr, and Ramsey. These three cards may seem insignificant right now but the future that these three hold is invaluable beyond what we can see. They have the ability to be the leader of their respective teams within two to three years and make an impact in the league. As we are becoming aware, it is less and less likely these days for a college player to jump into the NFL and become a star immediately. With the complexity of offensive systems, players need two or more years to become intimate with a system. I feel this is the same for these young players. All three of them also have the natural ability to be a star. So this is why I think they are the cards that will make or break this set. Right now they are great buys compared to rookie stars in other sports. So, if you're smart, build up your portfolio and let it sit for a couple years.

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