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IPO InsightBarnett, Brees, D. Davis, Gannon,
L. Johnson, McDougle, Pennington, P. Price

By Sean Cook (e-mail)


Well, I am glad to be back again after numerous trips around the country, checking in on our military's training and ensuring that they are prepared for the latest predicaments they could face overseas. While I have been gone there have been a lot of changes around the community and some of them have been for the better. I am thrilled about the idea of having "NetJr" as a moderator of the eTopps forum. I never really had a beef with Steve-O. However, it is nice to get someone who is a staple on the team keeping the boards in order. The boards are a lot better than they have been in the past but there is still room for improvement. Speaking of which, why do we have so many forums? We have too many, or I so think. All we need is one for each sport and then maybe a general forum for everything else. It gets complicated trying to follow some of these topics. Then we could also get rid of some of the old ones and update others to reflect that it is no longer a test (in fact it is over...).

Something else I wanted to touch upon is this "jumping ship" program that everyone is bragging about on the boards. Everyone makes this big to-do about nothing when they leave. If you're not interested in collecting for fun (or a profit) then leave quietly. I don't need you to run a smear campaign to try and impress me about how smart you are by getting out of the program now (and losing money hand over fist). If you were really smart you would have gotten out last summer or next summer after the ports rocket again. I do not control what anyone outside my household does with their money but I do know a quitter when I see one. I am kidding... I have nothing against the people who bail out on the program. I just think that they need to know the truth and the facts.

First off, the ports are on the rise again. I know this may come as a shock to some of you but check out the graphs and your ports on CardTarget from time to time and see for yourself. My 4K+ loss in my portfolio has decreased of late (not much, but enough to make me smile!). I am also excited about the number of SP's that are coming out of 2003 football. Where on God's green earth can you find a rookie card with a print run under 1,000 by a major card company? I know one place and that is eTopps. I know for a fact that a lot of people are out there smiling and I am one of them. The prices are so low on some these cards that I am buying up a good quantity of players who have dropped way below what I would call a ludicrous price. I think this is the best time for new investors to come on board. I think that prices on eBay are outstanding and the IPO's and their PR's are right on target. My only gripe right now is that we seem to be set on these IPO prices and not flexible, either up or down. Why charge me either $4 or $6.50? Why not give me a $4, $5, and a $6 option? I am not a fan of the 50 cents and will never be. It just doesn't fool me. I realize that I am basically paying $7 for the card.

I guess I have imparted enough knowledge for a few weeks off and we should roll into our picks for this week. I am still excited about the season and hopefully my playoff-bound Seahawks will continue to keep me excited about it! Now let's check out our picks for the week. Remember, do not trust my advice but use it as a tool along with other tools to invest smarter. Do your homework and invest wisely.

Chad Pennington (1,500 @ $6.50)Chad Pennington 2003 eTopps

Chad debuted during the 2000 campaign out of Marshall College in West Virginia. This 28-year old is in his fourth season in the league and coming off his best year. However he is currently coming off an injury and will be used as a spark to this team which has lacked a lot in their 2-6 start. This past weekend was his first start since his injury at the start of the season. He passed for over 280 yards in the game but showed a lot of rust with 2 interceptions and 2 fumbles (one he lost). He was also sacked three times. Expect him to take two or more games to get back into last season's form. He has a lot of long-term potential in the NFL and will no doubt be an excellent player. He has two prior eTopps cards, 2001 (507 cards averaging $80.50) and 2002 (3,000 cards averaging $4.11), which are faring well on the market. This card looks to be better than the 2002 IPO as it will have a lower PR. I expect this IPO to sell 900-1,100 cards and settle around the $5 mark. Long-term potential is there however. I would wait and buy this card on the secondary market. DON'T BUY this card.

Domanick Davis (2,000 @ $6.50)Domanick Davis 2003 eTopps

This rookie, out of LSU, has made his impact felt in the NFL. He has already been "Rookie of the Week" once and won the starting job two weeks ago. In his third start he rushed for over 70 yards against the run-stopping Panthers in a great win for the Texans. This young star has a bright future with the Texans and should provide them with a valuable back out of the backfield, both rushing and receiving. He is currently averaging 4.9 yards per carry (99 attempts for 483 yards) in only 3 starts, but he has made appearances in 7 games. This is his first eTopps card and should be a sellout, being that he is a running back. Most RB and QB rookies sell out and I expect nothing less from this future star. Expect this card to simmer, even though he doesn't play in a good market and the Texans are still building. However, within 2 to 3 years, when Capers gets this team righted, this card will be worth twice what it is selling for now. BUY this card.

Drew Brees (1,000 @ $6.50)Drew Brees 2003 eTopps

This is the third eTopps card for this QB out of Purdue. This much-heralded star is currently having difficulties in the San Diego system; however all blame should not be aimed at Drew. Marty is a defensive coach and is not known for grooming quarterbacks (more like abusing them). Like eTopps says on the web page for Drew… "San Diego should have a well-balanced offense…" But this season has been quite the contrary. This year the offense has sputtered and stalled with its two young stars. Drew has thrown almost as many interceptions in the first 8 games (12) as he did all of last year (16). This is very indicative of poor decision-making in the pocket and trying to force a play. This is his third card with eTopps and, even with an attractive PR of 1000, I don't like this card or the price. I don't see any value for it in the future and I think Drew is not of the star caliber as a Pennington. You're better off picking up his 2001 card, with a PR of 1,290 and selling for about $17, than investing in this IPO. DON'T BUY this card.

Jerome McDougle (1,500 @ $4.00)Jerome McDougle 2003 eTopps

Jerome who? I know that is what many of you are asking out there. I am also assuming you're thinking this is one of the filler cards. Jerome was the 15th pick in the draft this year out of the University of Miami. He has not played a down this year in the regular season. In the preseason he bruised his hip and suffered high ankle and MCL strains. He has the size and potential, but in the NFL you have to stay healthy. He has potential and size, 6'2" and 280 lbs., to play DE in the NFL. At Miami he was a finalist for the Lombardi trophy and the Hendricks DE award last year. I like the price and print run but I am still not sold on Jerome being an impact player in the league. However, I am going to recommend this card as a BUY because of his rookie status alone. This IPO will probably sell 700-800 cards. BUY this card.

Larry Johnson (2,000 @ $4.00)Larry Johnson 2003 eTopps

We don't need to tell you who Larry Johnson is. He is the great rusher who came out of Penn State and is now sitting behind the great Priest Holmes. Larry has only appeared in one game this year, carrying the ball six times for 25 yards. The 27th pick in the last draft is going to make an impact at some point in this league. The only question is when. With Holmes lighting the league up the Chiefs are going to bring him along slowly, no doubt a smart move. This is his first eTopps card and will not do much of anything until he breaks into the starting lineup with or without the Chiefs. This card should sell out due to his popularity. BUY this card.

Nick Barnett (1,500 @ $6.50)Nick Barnett 2003 eTopps

Nick Barnett is one of the better players to come out of last year's draft. The Packers picked up this hard-hitting MLB out of Oregon St. with the 29th pick overall. He has taken full advantage of every chance he had to play. He has played in 8 games thus far. In those games he has 55 tackles, 12 assists, 2 sacks and 2 INT's. Nick is projected to have over 100 tackles (not bad stats for a rookie MLB). This is his first eTopps card and should sell well based on his stats this year. I predict 1,200 to 1,300 cards for this IPO. BUY this card.

Peerless Price (1,500 @ $4.00)Peerless Price 2003 eTopps

A former Tennessee Volunteer and Buffalo Bill, Peerless was brought into Atlanta to complement Michael Vick and give the Falcons a legitimate deep threat. However, one year removed from an outstanding playoff performance and without Vick at QB, this WR is not having the year he or anyone else thought he would have. After a 1,000-yard performance last year, he is on pace for about 800 yards this season. This drop-off is no doubt due to the lack of Vick and the resulting adjustments that had to be made with the offensive calls. If and when Vick returns, his numbers should again climb. I would expect this year to be a good one for him, but not up to his stats from a year ago. However, if healthy next year, he should prove a phenomenal receiver for Vick. He is still one of the best WR's out there, with deep-threat capability like no other. This is his second eTopps card. Price- and PR-wise it is a lot better than his 2002 IPO (2,298 @ $3.90 7-day average). You're going to find better deals for this card on the secondary market. DON'T BUY this card.

Rich Gannon (1,000 @ $4.00)Rich Gannon 2003 eTopps

One year removed from the Super Bowl, this QB is having a good year but is unable to perform when it counts. This is no doubt both his fault and that of Bill Callahan, who is likely on his last leg with Al Davis. Rich has come into his prime late in his career. The MVP from last year has continued with his excellent passing. He has already thrown for over 1,200 yards and more TD's than INT's (8 to 4). His QB rating (73.5) is slightly down from his career average (84.7). However, this team should rebound in the second half and start to play better. Rich has two prior IPO's, an '01 and an '02 issue. His '01 card is the cream of this class, with only 327 produced and averaging around $24 apiece. I would recommend you hold on this IPO and pick it up on the secondary market if you must. I could see this IPO selling from 600-700 cards. DON'T BUY this card.

In closing, I would like to give some props to the Staff at eTopps for getting the "Buy this card now" link on the NFL player pages. This is the same link used with the baseball players on the MLB site. I am not sure how long this has been going on but this is a very effective tool. I also like the way they advertised on all the other sports sites and recommend continuing to do so. There are thousands of fantasy sports fans out there and this would be an excellent target group for eTopps. Continue to push the advertising guys and gals! Never quit… remember all those great Miller Lite commercials? One gday those could be eTopps commercials! Keep up the good work and we will continue our committed support of the program.

TALK BACK!

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