eTopps Clubhouse - Member Growth Estimate

With eTopps not consistently releasing the number of member accounts and the proliferation of multiple account holders, it's difficult to estimate how fast the eTopps program is growing. We think the official eTopps message boards may be a good indicator. The number of new, "active", posters to the boards can yield an estimate of the rate of growth in the program overall. Please read the frequently asked questions for aid in interpreting the data.

Keep in mind that some months will be high or low depending on a number of factors, namely the amount of advertising eTopps does. Seasonal changes will occur as each sport's season winds down and new sport seasons begin. A month-to-month decrease in the amount of growth doesn't on its own signal a problem for the program. Year-over-year numbers for each month are especially useful.

Notes: April '02 additions may be skewed a bit because a lot of members were still migrating from the old board. But the new board really got going on March 27th so most of the old posters had registered before the 1st of April. A spike in new posters occurred in July because of the eTopps TV advertising campaign.

Month	Raw Adds
April '02	173
May '02	151
June '02	148
July '02	230
August '02	116
September '02	157
October '02	161
November '02	100
December '02	67
January '03	76
February '03	90
March '03	64
April '03	74
May '03	102
June '03	88
July '03	59
August '03	62
September '03	50
October '03	38
November '03	29
December '03	20
January '04	18
February '04	25
March '04	37
April '04	45
May '04	48
June '04	29
July '04	18
August '04	21

Frequently Asked Questions

So is this the final word on how fast eTopps is growing?

How do you define a "new active poster"?

What about the number of eTopps auctions on eBay as an estimate of growth?

What about people that make multiple message board ID's?

What about message board lurkers?

What about eTopps members who don't read the message boards?

The number of additions this month is less than last month. Is the eTopps program in trouble?

Do you plan on updating this?

So is this the final word on how fast eTopps is growing?

Not at all. But we think message board growth correlates well with eTopps member growth because the proportion of eTopps members using the message boards does not change greatly from month to month. There are many different factors that could cause these estimates to be off. We do think that month-to-month comparisons may prove useful. The causes (i.e. ad campaigns, sports season changes) of anomalies in the data must be considered when interpreting the data. The graphs do not tell the whole picture.

How do you define a "new active poster"?

We do not count members that post less than 3 times overall as a "new active poster". Many times these are additional ID's registered by a single person.

What about the number of eTopps auctions on eBay as an estimate of growth?

These are more dependent on the number of cards IPO'd by eTopps and do not provide an accurate estimate of member growth in our opinion.

What about people that make multiple message board ID's?

Many of these are filtered out when we discard posters who make less than 3 posts overall. But the number of multiple ID's compared to overall number of new posters each month likely doesn't change much from month to month.

What about message board lurkers?

The proportion of new message boards users each month who do not register likely does not change greatly from month to month. This is not an attempt to estimate the exact number of new eTopps members each month but rather to compare month-to-month numbers and see trends.

What about eTopps members who don't read the message boards?

The proportion of eTopps members using the message boards likely does not change greatly from month to month. It has been estimated in the past that 10% of eTopps members read the message boards. Our intention is not to yield an estimate of the exact number of new eTopps members joining each month but rather to compare month-to-month numbers and see trends.

The number of additions this month is less than last month. Is the eTopps program in trouble?

Not necessarily. Month-to-month comparisons may prove useful but they must be viewed in the right context. The causes (i.e. ad campaigns, sports season changes) of spikes or downturns from month-to-month must be considered when interpreting the data. The graphs do not tell the whole picture.

Do you plan on updating this?

Yes. We plan on adding each month's data on approximately the 15th of the following month. That gives some time for new "active" posters to get more than 2 posts under their belt.